A shortage of standouts across the board makes gauging the winners and losers in this draft more of an inexact science than usual
Monday Extra: The NFL Draft is one big question mark
The lack of sure-fire superstars makes the assessment of the NFL draft even more unpredictable than usual this year.
The big value in the draft comes in all the potentially solid looking picks in the second, third and fourth rounds.
The first round? There are almost no players who quite have the All-Pro pedigree of past top draftees and current NFL superstars like Peyton Manning, Julius Peppers, Joe Thomas or Champ Bailey. The best running back this year was not as good as last year’s top back, Darren McFadden. The top quarterback is not nearly as highly regarded as Matt Ryan. Jake Long, last year’s No. 1 pick, was better than this year’s top lineman. The top defensive end last year, Chris Long, was rated higher than this year’s top end.
Forecasting the draft results is difficult any year; this year it’s especially speculative.
Saving money
The Cleveland Browns entered the draft with only five picks and a load of rebuilding to do. So they dealt the fifth pick overall for No. 17, a second-round pick and three players. The move from No. 5 to 17 saved them at least $16 million in guaranteed money and about $40 million overall. The fifth pick will command $26 million guaranteed and a contract worth an easy $55 million. The 17th will cost $9 million guaranteed and $15 million overall.
Ravens North
New Jets coach Rex Ryan looks like he is recreating his Baltimore recipe for success in the Big Apple. Ryan, the former Baltimore defensive chief, camped out at the house of Ravens star linebacker Bart Scott the night of free agency to lure him to the Jets.
By trading up to the fifth overall pick and drafting Mark Sanchez, it looks like he will try to repeat the Joe Flacco experiment. Flacco ran a pared-down offense as a rookie starter and took the Ravens to the playoffs. Sanchez has the smarts and savvy of Flacco. However, he does not have Flacco’s cannon arm. Look for Sanchez to start right away.
Raider shock
The surprise pick of the draft was the Oakland Raiders’ pick of Ohio University safety Mike Mitchell at No. 47 overall in the second round. No draft experts rated him in the top 100. In fact, ESPN’s Mel Kiper rated him the 73rd best cornerback. NFLDraftScout.com rated him as a sixth-rounder.
Obviously, Mitchell was an oversight by Kiper since Mitchell was not invited to the NFL Scouting Combine workouts in February. Mitchell ran a 4.43-second 40-yard dash on campus this spring, faster than all but three other safety prospects. Still, it’s hard to imagine the Raiders not being able to draft him in the third or fourth rounds.
“He is probably the most ferocious hitter in the draft, and it also just happens he can fly,” Raiders coach Tom Cable said.
The Raiders love safeties. They have drafted 10 of them in the last 11 years.
Impressive drafts
• Denver: The Broncos surprised people by taking Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno at No. 12. But with Kyle Orton as the QB, they better have a strong run game. Robert Ayers is a good 3-4 DE. They got an Antoine Winfield-type in CB Alphonso Smith, but they had to give up a 2010 first-rounder to do it. They had five picks in the top 64. Of course, the downside is they had to give up Jay Cutler, a disastrous move.
• Cincinnati: The Bengals got a stud tackle in Andre Smith and a stud middle linebacker in Rey Maualuga. They took on boom-bust DE Michael Johnson in the third round. TE Chase Coffman should catch passes from Carson Palmer. Jonathan Luigs is a good center prospect.
• Buffalo: The Bills were one of three teams that had four or more picks in the first two rounds (Denver and New England were the others). The Bills filled needs with the fastest speed rusher in the draft, the No. 2 center, the No. 1 guard, a ball-hawking safety for a turnover-starved defense and a stretch-the-field tight end. Have they made the correct evaluation of their offensive tackles?
•New England: The Patriots entered the draft with 11 picks and took six players in the top 100. They filled needs at safety (Patrick Chung), defensive line (Ron Brace) and cornerback (Darius Butler). Even better, they made trades to get two extra second-round picks next year. The Foxborough colossus rolls on.
• Other good-looking drafts: Green Bay, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, N. Y. Giants.
Unimpressive drafts
• Oakland: Raiders all-time great deep-threat receiver Cliff Branch retired after the 1985 season. Oakland owner Al Davis has been longing for the second coming of Branch ever since. The Raiders have had Willie Gault, James Jett and Mervyn Fernandez. Saturday they took the fastest wideout in the draft, Maryland’s Darrius Heyward-Bey, who runs a 4.3-second 40-yard dash. It’s boom or bust. The Raiders love speed. Their second-round pick, Mitchell, is a blazer and major sleeper. The production didn’t quite match the workout numbers for third-round pick DE Matt Shaughnessy. Fourth-round LB Norris Slade was projected as a seventh-rounder.
• Washington: The Redskins gave up their second-round pick last year for Jason Taylor, whom they cut this year. So the Redskins only had two picks in the first 150. The 13th pick was used for DE Brian Orakpo – another Texas underachiever?
•Tampa Bay: Anybody who watched Kansas State games last year has to scratch their head at the prospect of Josh Freeman being the 17th overall pick. Freeman has all the measurables but he simply didn’t look great in college. It’s rebuilding time for the Bucs.
•New Orleans: The Saints got a good defensive back at No. 15 in Malcolm Jenkins but they didn’t pick again until No. 116. Not sure if enough was done to help a defense that ranked 26th in points allowed.
Year of theCenter
For the first time since 1983, two centers were taken in the first round. It was the first time since 1989 that three centers went among the top 49 picks. Cleveland took Alex Mack at No. 21. Buffalo took Eric Wood (with the intention of moving him to guard) at No. 28.
Value picks
Prominent selections who lingered on the draft board and look like good values:
No. 10 Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree (San Francisco), No. 31 Ohio State RB Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona), No. 55 Missouri S William Moore (Atlanta), No. 57 Utah DE Paul Kruger (Baltimore), No. 68 San Jose DT Jarron Gilbert (Chicago), No. 89 South Carolina TE Jared Cook (Tennessee), No. 121 Southern Mississippi TE Shawn Nelson (Buffalo), No. 125 Richmond DE Lawrence Sidbury (Atlanta).
Risers and reaches
Noteworthy selections who went conspicuously higher than expected:
No. 7 Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (Oakland), No. 47 Ohio S Mike Mitchell (Oakland), No. 48 Texas Tech S Darcel Mc-Bath (Denver), No. 73 William & Mary CB Derek Cox (Jacksonville), No. 76 Wisconsin LB DeAndre Levy (Detroit), No. 87 Southern Cal WR Patrick Turner (Miami).
White Wildcat
Miami jumped on the prototypical Wildcat threat in the draft by taking West Virginia quarterback Pat White in the second round. Defensive coordinators will lose sleep thinking about containing White.
Colt power
Indianapolis had what looked like an ideal defensive tackle in its sights at No. 27 with Missouri’s Evander “Ziggy” Hood on the board. Instead, Colts President Bill Polian took Connecticut RB Donald Brown. With another top weapon at his disposal, expect Manning to control the ball 33 minutes a game and keep his defense on the sideline.
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