McKelvin has shot to succeed
CBs drafted early usually pan out
By Mark Gaughan NEWS SPORTS REPORTER
Updated: 05/04/08 7:05 AM
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- Leodis McKelvin has the size and speed to be a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback.
Leodis McKelvin likely was the safest pick the Bills could have made with the 11th selection in the NFL Draft last weekend.
Elite college cornerbacks have a great success rate in the NFL.
In the 20-year period from 1986 to 2005, 28 cornerbacks were taken among the top 15 picks of the draft. Only seven, or 25 percent, could be considered busts. The other 21 were at least decent players for the teams that drafted them.
Even more encouraging for Bills fans: 15 of those 28 high first-round picks made at least one trip to the Pro Bowl. That’s a 54 percent Pro Bowl rate.
“It’s still a difficult adjustment for a corner because of the speed of the game and more coverages they’re doing,” said Tom Modrak, Bills vice president of college scouting. “However, they know in advance pretty much what the coverage is going to be and where they’re going. Whereas on the other side of the ball [at receiver], you may be adjusting on the move a little bit more. So there are just more variables in the receiver’s progress.”
“They’re a little bit less dependent on other factors,” Bills defensive coordinator Perry Fewell said of cornerbacks.
McKelvin, a 5-foot-10, 192-pounder, has the size and speed to be a Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback. He was the top-rated cornerback in the draft. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds, the same time that Bills receiver Lee Evans ran coming out of college.
This isn’t to say McKelvin is a lock to succeed. He was not as highly rated as some of those Pro Bowl corners over the past 20 years — players like Deion Sanders, Champ Bailey and Charles Woodson. But his size and speed numbers — his measurables — are similar to many of those high picks. DeAngelo Hall, the eighth pick in 2004, was 5-10 and 202 and ran a 4.37 out of college. Terence Newman, the fifth pick in 2003, was a 5-10, 189- pounder who ran 4.37.
“Physically I like everything about Leodis,” said Bills defensive backs coach George Catavolos. “But I also like his approach to the game. I think it’s very important to him to be a good football player.”
McKelvin is expecting success.
“I’m going to come in and do my job and come in fighting to make the team a lot better,” he said. “I feel very comfortable. I feel I’m going to fit in right away. I’m going to come in and help this team very early.”
McKelvin is expected to challenge Jabari Greer right away for the starting job opposite cornerback Terrence McGee. Greer is coming off a decent season, and the Bills do not have to push McKelvin into the starting lineup right away. But the likelihood is McKelvin will play early in passing situations and take the starting role at some point as a rookie.
McKelvin said the fact he played well during Senior Bowl week in January gave him more confidence he can make a smooth adjustment to the pros.
“When the season was over I got a chance to go to the Senior Bowl and really show that I could compete with every player in the country,” McKelvin said. “Everything just happened for me the right way. I went there and competed and my talent just took over.”
The elite size-speed combination is a priority for NFL teams.
On the NFL’s opening weekend last season, 20 of the 32 teams had a first-round draft choice starting at left cornerback — the No. 1 corner spot. That was the most of any position. Quarterback was second with 16 first-rounders starting.
“We talk about speed for everybody, but recovery speed is important for corners,” Modrak said. “One thing is you don’t have to be perfect when you can recover. You’d like to be perfect all the time. But at least you can get back out of a bad situation if you have that recovery speed.”
The 75 percent success rate of top corners compares favorably to other positions. For receivers taken over the same 20-year period, the success rate of top-15 picks is 56 percent (21 out of 37). For quarterbacks taken in the 1980s and 1990s, the rate of success for just the top 10 picks was only 39 percent.
“When you look at receivers, generally speaking, they’re going onto a team that already has a No. 1 receiver,” Modrak said. “So they don’t see as many balls, get as many opportunities. So if they don’t make those (opportunities) work early, sometimes they start to go away. The quarterback usually has more confidence in the veterans until they build up that rapport and rhythm with each other.”
If one considers all cornerbacks taken in the first round (the top 32 picks), the success rate still is impressive. From the 1986-2005 period, 37 out of 57 (65 percent) were decent or better for the teams that drafted them.
At receiver over the same time period, there were 38 hits and 39 misses. At quarterback in the 1980s and 1990s, only 39 percent of first-round picks were decent or better for the team that drafted them.
The Bills’ track record of success at corner mirrors the league figures. Before this year, the Bills had taken seven cornerbacks in the first round since the common draft began in 1967, and only one (J. D. Williams in 1990) was a bust. The hits: Nate Clements (2001), Antoine Winfield (1999), Jeff Burris (1994), Thomas Smith (1993), Derrick Burroughs (1985) and Mario Clark (1976).
email: mgaughan@buffnews.com
