Defensive stand
Bills bulk up on ‘D’ trying to end long playoff drought
There’s no question which unit is at the wheel of the Buffalo Bills’ bandwagon. It’s the defense, and it better be good if the Bills are going to snap their franchise-record eight-season streak of missing the playoffs.
The Bills have added seven key contributors since last season, five from outside the organization and two in the form of starters coming back from injury.
The defense got six of those seven – defensive tackles Marcus Stroud and Spencer Johnson, linebackers Kawika Mitchell and Paul Posluszny, cornerback Leodis McKelvin and safety Ko Simpson. Posluszny and Simpson both were lost for almost all last season.
So which side of last year’s team – which ranked 30th on offense and 31st on defense – needs to make the biggest step up? It’s no contest.
“We now have the players that we need here at every position,” said safety Donte Whitner. “Last year we had to hold some things tight, whether it was we didn’t have the personnel we needed in order to execute the defense or we just didn’t know what to do.”
“We had a lot of young guys out there, so we had to play a lot of Cover Two (zone) or Cover Three (three-deep zone),” Whitner said. “Now we have the personnel and we have the knowledge.”
“I think we have so much more talent on defense now,” said Posluszny. “We have some big-time players that we can really depend on in tough situations to do big things for us.”
A dramatic improvement on defense is not particularly uncommon from one season to the next. Just last year, Tennessee’s defense improved from 32nd to fifth in yards allowed, and Washington went from 31st to eighth. Both made the playoffs.
Here’s a breakdown on the Bills strengths and weaknesses:
5 reasons for optimism
1. A Stout Front Seven. The Bills ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed last year and 29th the previous two years. That should be old news. Stroud is a huge upgrade over Larry Tripplett. Mitchell, at 253, is 24 pounds heavier than last year’s starter, Keith Ellison. Posluszny is like a bonus first-round draft pick. He is a phenomenal physical specimen, and he’s going to be a star this season. Spencer Johnson gives the best depth they’ve had at defensive tackle in years. Throw in Ryan Denney, too. He was a shell of himself last year due to a broken foot. He’s stronger than people realize, he’s fully healthy, and he’s a big addition to the D-line rotation. Kyle Williams is a hard worker who fits the run-and-chase scheme at defensive tackle next to Stroud. The Bills could get another big upgrade if John McCargo can emerge in his third season. He shows flashes.
The jury is out on whether Stroud can recapture his Pro Bowl form of 2005. The Jaguars traded him because they think he’s past his prime due to ankle injuries. The microfracture surgery he underwent in January 2007 – in which holes are drilled into the bone to promote regeneration of cartilage – is more commonly performed on the knee than the ankle. Stroud looked good in preseason – just ask Bills guard Brad Butler – and never missed a day of practice. Even if he’s not a Pro Bowler, he still looks like a big improvement for the Bills.
2. Good Running Backs. Marshawn Lynch looked great this summer. He is a workhorse back who can be the foundation of an offense. If he stays healthy, a 1,600-yard season in combined rushing and receiving yards is easily imaginable. He gained 1,299 yards last year in a low-functioning offense, he missed three games and he only caught 18 passes. Backup Fred Jackson is a bonus this year. The Bills didn’t truly stumble upon his ability to contribute until the 12th game last year, when he produced 184 combined yards against Washington. Jackson should be a good receiving weapon out of the backfield on third downs.
3. Turk Schonert and Solid Coaching. Banking on coaching to make a big difference in the offense has proved to be a false hope in Buffalo this decade. Schonert follows Steve Fairchild, Tom Clements, Kevin Gilbride and Mike Sheppard, all of whom failed (albeit with sub-standard personnel). Schonert, 51, never has been a coordinator. However, he brings so much experience as a player and coach that hopes are high. His willingness to throw more to the backs, let the quarterbacks audible and move Lee Evans around offers promise. Expect the offense to be less predictable. With Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed in the slot, the Bills are a tough matchup in the four-receiver set (which was non-existent last year).
The biggest knock on Dick Jauron’s head-coaching career is he never has found a successful offensive coordinator. Schonert will have a huge say in how long Jauron’s tenure here lasts. Overall, Jauron did a good job squeezing the most out of his talent and making adjustments the past two years. When you rank 30th on offense and 31st on defense with 17 guys on injured reserve and still win seven games, that’s doing some coaching. Let’s see what he can do under more optimal circumstances.
4. Good, Young Talent. The acquisitions of the past three years have given the Bills a core of solid young players who are fairly proven, including Lynch, Evans, Derrick Dockery, Jason Peters (presuming he doesn’t retire), Brad Butler, Chris Kelsay, Posluszny, Mitchell, Whitner, Terrence McGee. If the Bills finally get good quarterbacking, they could make noise.
5. Great Special Teams. The Bills have an embarrassment of riches in the return game. With Terrence McGee on kickoffs, Roscoe Parrish on punts and rookie Leodis McKelvin spelling both, the Bills should win the kicking-game field-position battle almost every week. Brian Moorman out-punts his counterpart almost every week. Rian Lindell is an excellent kicker. Assistant head coach Bobby April is one of the best special teams chiefs in the league.
5 reasons for concern
1. Trent Edwards’ inexperience. Make no mistake, Edwards is a promising second-year player. He has poise and football instincts beyond his years. Look for him to complete 62 percent of his passes, maybe higher. But let’s be realistic. He has nine career starts. He had an abbreviated preseason. He’s bound to have some growing pains in Year Two. Most of the time, you can tell pretty quickly if a quarterback is going to be decent. It looks like Edwards will be at least that good. Can he be great? Can he lift a team? Can he be better, say, than Chad Pennington, the epitome of a good, winning quarterback who never will lead you to the Super Bowl?
2.One Weapon Shy of a Load. The Bills’ offense still is one weapon short of having “critical mass.” It’s not diverse enough to dominate. James Hardy is a huge addition who will help. But a decent rookie receiving year is 35 catches for 450 yards with three touchdowns. Those numbers aren’t going to make the Bills a top-12 offense.
A good defense with a strong front seven will figure it can contain Lynch. It will put a safety over the top of Lee Evans almost every play. What’s the Bills’ answer? If Hardy were a proven third-year player or the Bills had a big play-maker at tight end, the Bills would be a matchup nightmare. But how much can
Robert Royal and Derek Schouman be expected to contribute at tight end? Schonert is going to have to be creative in getting the ball to Lynch and Jackson, and Edwards is going to have to be effective in moving the chains with the short passing game. Only then will the Bills loosen up defenses and get good shots to go deep.
3.Run Blocking by the Offensive Line. The Bills improved from 18th to 28th in yards per rush last year (4.02 yards a carry) despite the fact defenses did not have to respect the passing game. That’s an indication the offensive line was much improved. Without Peters, however, the line is going to have a tougher time getting good push in the run game. Langston Walker is not as good as Peters on the left. Kirk Chambers is not as good as Walker on the right. Dockery and Butler will need to excel at the guard spots. Melvin Fowler is undersized at center but he plays with some nastiness. The lack of depth at tackle is frightening. An injury to Walker would be a disaster.
4. Is there enough pass rush? Pass rush is more important than shut-down corners. The Bills fell from 10th in sacks in 2006 to 30th in 2007. The poor run defense kept opposing offenses out of third-and-long situations. The poor Bills offense helped opponents play too often with a lead, another deterrent to the Bills’ rush. The Bills expect both of those problems to be solved this year. Aaron Schobel can bring the rush. Can the Bills get heat more often with a four-man rush. This is a big year for Kelsay to prove he can get to the quarterback. Denney’s return will help the pass rush, too.
5. Size and experience at cornerback. Another area critical to improvement is the play of the nickel cornerback. It wasn’t good enough last year, and the Bills ranked 29th on third-down defense. Leodis McKelvin, Ashton Youboty and Reggie Corner all will get chances to work the slot. They must get the job done. Terrence McGee is a quality starting corner. Jabari Greer should be OK on the other side. The problem with that duo is they’re small and vulnerable to big receiving corps. Eventually, McKelvin will be an upgrade. Meanwhile, Whitner appears ready in Year Three to make some big plays in the secondary and behind the line of scrimmage.
Outlook
Either the Bills or the New York Jets should make the playoffs this year, because both have a favorable schedule, the AFC West is down and the AFC Central teams play tough schedules. The AFC South is a great division. Count on it producing one wild-card team. But with the South teams beating up on each other, the second-place team in the East should be able to get a wild-card spot.
It would be easy to say the Bills are a year away. Give Edwards, Hardy and McKelvin one more year to grow and the front-office one more offseason to add another weapon. But the opportunity to make the playoffs is there for the Bills. The presumption is Peters eventually will report. The Bills get 10 wins and squeak into the post-season with the last wild-card spot.
email: mgaughan@buffnews.com
