Sticking with team-building strategies could bring postseason for Bills after eight-year drought
Working the plan
The Buffalo Bills’ brain trust was staring up at its big board filled with college prospects 18 months ago as Stanford quarterback Trent Edwards fell into the third round of the NFL Draft.
The Bills’ selection, No. 92 overall, was fast approaching, and the Bills had Edwards rated somewhere around 30th.
“When it came to that point in the draft, it was sticking out at us,” said Tom Modrak, Bills vice president of college scouting. “He was by far the highest guy on the board.”
“As our pick approached I looked at [coach] Dick Jauron and he said, “We’re staying with the board, right?’ And I said, “Right.”
Jauron was not looking for wiggle room by asking his question. He was re-affirming the Bills’ agreed-upon plan.
The Bills had other more pressing needs than quarterback. They did not go into the draft expecting to take a quarterback with a high pick. There were other players available who looked more likely to provide Jauron with immediate help in 2007.
However, the Bills were following one of the fundamental strategies of NFL team building—stick with the draft board.
There is optimism inside One Bills Drive about the 2008 season. The Bills believe that solid drafts the past three years have put them in good position to contend for a playoff spot. They believe they have a lot of the pieces of the puzzle in place to be a quality team.
Here’s a look at the philosophical approaches the Bills have taken in putting together the roster since Jauron’s tenure began in 2006.
Build the trenches
For too long, the Bills failed to invest in their offensive line. The organization has devoted only three first-day draft picks to offensive linemen in the past 12 years. In addition, from 2002 to 2006 there were no big-ticket free-agent acquisitions on the O-line.
That changed on March 2, 2007, when the Bills shelled out $75 million worth of contracts to sign guards Derrick Dockery and Jason Whittle and tackle Langston Walker.
“We knew we had to get stronger up front,” said Bills chief operating officer Russ Brandon. “Signing Dock and Langston really fortified that line and made us feel good about that unit going forward.”
The Bills believe their offensive line is a strength of the team –if Pro Bowler Jason Peters is in place at left tackle. Obviously, Peters’ absence this year would put an unexpected crimp in the Bills’ master plan.
The Bills took similar action on the other side of the line this year after watching the run defense finish among the NFL’s bottom eight for a third year in a row in 2007. Marcus Stroud was acquired in a trade with Jacksonville, and Spencer Johnson was signed from Minnesota. The Bills used a third-round pick on defensive end Chris Ellis, marking the second time in Jauron’s three years the Bills used a top-three pick on a defensive lineman.
The Stroud deal could be considered a way of making up for the mistake made after the 2004 season, when the Bills let defensive tackle Pat Williams leave in free agency.
Obviously, the Bills’ success this year will depend in a big way on them being right about Stroud, who is coming off of two injury-plagued seasons. It also will help if their selection of John McCargo in the first round in 2006 is proven right.
It should be noted one lineman the Bills’ current regime missed on was defensive tackle Larry Tripplett, who signed in 2006 for $3.6 million a year. He did not live up to expectations and was cut in February.
The principle of building in the trenches is tied directly to the next fundamental.
Keep your core players
The Bills’ current regime has done that repeatedly with trench players – re-signing Ryan Denney and Peters in 2006, Chris Kelsay and Aaron Schobel in 2007 and Brad Butler this year. Schobel’s deal was huge ($7 million a year) but not surprising. He has 67 career sacks. Kelsay’s deal, worth $5.75 million a year, raised eyebrows, because he had 12.5 career sacks when he signed it. The Bills knew Kelsay was about to command big money in free agency, they believe he’s a perfect fit for Jauron’s defense, and –this is the key benefit to signing your own –they knew exactly what they were getting.
“Looking back, Coach Jauron’s philosophy defensively is to play in waves, especially up front,” Brandon said. “That’s why it was important to keep an elite player like Aaron and to re-sign Chris and Ryan Denney. With that type of system, you really want four defensive ends in the rotation who can bring it each and every play. Chris is relentless and he’s a hard working player. And he really defines what our organization is built upon. He’s done an excellent job.”
The Bills also have re-signed Terrence McGee, Angelo Crowell, Brian Moorman, Rian Lindell and Kyle Williams since 2005. And they’re working hard to re-sign Lee Evans.
“We really feel that continuity is a key component to winning,” Brandon said. “You want your core components in place, which we’ve worked hard to develop over the past few years.”
Just how many players on the roster can fit into that core from a financial standpoint? The Bills won’t say if they have a firm number, but about 14 is a good assumption. For a team like the Indianapolis Colts, it may be a couple fewer, since they had to pay quarterback Peyton Manning a $35 million bonus. That’s a tradeoff they are happy to make.
If an organization is good at identifying and signing productive core players, it’s easier to follow the following fundamental.
Draft trumps free agency
The Oakland Raiders splurged this offseason on $255 million in free-agent contracts. That, however, is the exception these days in the NFL. Bills owner Ralph Wilson paid for a bunch of mostly modestly priced free agents in 2006 as a way to rebuild the roster. The Bills splurged on two unrestricted free agents (Dockery and Walker) in 2007. Their foray in 2008 was modest counting Stroud, who was a trade acquisition.
“Mr. Wilson always says the lifeblood of your organization comes through the draft,” Brandon said. “From our standpoint, we try to be very strategic in free agency. There’s a lot of hype around free agency because of the time of year it takes place. But that has not proven to be the successful model. Our philosophy is to stick with our draft process and develop your players.”
A big reason the Bills splurged on the offensive line was their assessment of the free-agent landscape.
“We had done homework looking at the potential [free-agent] class coming out a year later,” Brandon said. “We felt we needed to be aggressive based on what we anticipated happening, which was it would be a rather dry class in 2008.”
Actually, the offensive line draft class in 2007 was not deep, either. Just two offensive linemen were taken in the first 28 picks, and both went in the top 10, before Buffalo’s pick.
Conventional wisdom in free agency is guard is not a big-pay position. Quarterback, offensive tackle, receiver, defensive end and cornerback are the big-money positions in the NFL. Nevertheless, the Bills had no qualms about paying Dockery.
“I think every organization finds their core differently,” Brandon said.
Translation: You’ve got 12 to 15 top-dollar positions, and you fill them the best way you can. Selective free-agent shopping works best if the draft is built upon.
Singles and doubles
One criticism of the Tom Donahoe regime was the Bills tried for the home run with the drafting of Willis McGahee. It didn’t work. J. P. Losman also was a bit of a boom-or-bust pick.
The Bills have avoided reaches in the draft the past three years. They have focused on drafting players who were productive players in college.
This year’s selection of Leodis McKelvin at No. 11 overall can be viewed as a “safe” pick. In the 20-year period from 1986 to 2005, 28 cornerbacks were taken among the top 15 picks of the draft. Only seven, or 25 percent, could be considered busts. The other 21 were at least decent players for the teams that drafted them. The success rate at receiver in the first-round of the draft over the past decade is running at about 45 percent.
Some expected the Bills to fill a glaring need at linebacker in 2007 by drafting Patrick Willis. This was another case of the Bills sticking to their draft board. They liked Willis but they liked running back Marshawn Lynch better. And they had their eyes on Penn State linebacker Paul Posluszny in the second round.
“We liked Marshawn a lot, and we weren’t capitulating to anything in taking him,” said Modrak. “We felt if we could come out of there somehow, someway, with both him and Paul it would be the ideal scenario for us.”
Draft for character
Overall, the Bills have a better track record than most teams for avoiding players who get into trouble.
Donte Whitner is one of many examples of the Bills looking for a locker-room leader.
Whitner was the No. 8 pick in 2006. The Bills stuck to their draft board in taking Whitner No. 8 in 2006, even though defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (now with Baltimore) arguably may have filled a bigger need.
“Besides the football talent, he had great intangibles,” Modrak said. “He has a great work ethic. He kept his own notebook on each team they played against at Ohio State. He had the ability to cover man [to man] out of a safety position. He was a relentless player. He kind of clicked off all the right things, including the kind of person he was, and that position is a leadership position.”
While Ngata is a force now for the Baltimore Ravens and the Bills recognized his talent, they simply did not think he fit Jauron’s defensive scheme.
Ngata is a stay-at-home run plugger.
“We wanted Donte a little more,” Modrak said. “It wasn’t a negative on Haloti. There would have had to have been some adjustments for Haloti. He’s not a run-and-chase kind of guy.”
The Bills scouting staff has a clear view of what the coaching staff wants, which speaks to the next principle, perhaps the biggest the Bills are trying to embrace.
Maintain continuity
“We’ve been through several
drafts together now with our coaches, so we have some consistency together,” Modrak said. “They know what we’re doing. We know what they want. That’s so important. If you like a player who’s not a perfect fit, you have a better handle on it. You might say this guy is not a fit for us, but we’ve got to look hard at him because he makes plays or whatever. And there’s trust there.”
Part of the problem the Bills have had since Marv Levy resigned as head coach in 1998 is a revolving door in the front office. A new coach’s broom sweeps clean. It’s almost guaranteed when there’s a regime change that a team will begin retracing steps taken in the
draft the previous four years.
Wilson made the strongest statement in favor of continuity when he put Brandon in charge of the organization after Levy stepped down as general manager in January.
Modrak stayed; the chief scouts stayed; John Guy stayed as pro personnel chief; Jim Overdorf stayed as chief negotiator and salary cap guru.
“We work as a consensus organization and bring all of our thoughts to Mr. Wilson,” Brandon said. “We take the philosophy that we play the ultimate team sport and we better act like it off the field. We really focus on that aspect of communication, building models and scenarios and working through them as a group. There’s a lot of internal debate, but we focus on walking out unified.”
The most consistent NFL organizations this decade — New England, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia — all have long-term stability in the front office.
Of course, all of the team-building philosophies work best if the organization is following another fundamental principle: Find great football players.
On Sunday, we begin to find out if the Bills have enough of those.
