The landscape of collegiate athletics is potentially in for a seismic shift caused by

conference expansion.

Talk of expansion and potentially high-stakes musical chairs began in December when the Big

Ten Conference announced it would begin a 12-18 month evaluation on the merits of adding

additional teams. The Big Ten currently has 11 teams and could expand to as many as 16.

That could affect nearly every conference in the country when you consider:

The Big Ten has reportedly hired the firm William Blair & Co. to assist with the

evaluation and according to a report in the Chicago Tribune, five schools being assessed by

the firm were Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Missouri and Rutgers, though other programs

like Nebraska, Texas and Kentucky also could be considered.

"I applaud them for being up front about it, but it's causing people to play the "What If?'

game," said Warde Manuel, the University at Buffalo's director of athletics.

One of the "What if?" questions concerns what happens to UB after the dust settles. Could a

vacuum in a conference like the Big East create an opening that Buffalo could fill? In the

near term it seems unlikely, but perhaps not impossible.

Losing Syracuse, Pitt and Rutgers would cripple the Big East in football. The league

is now scrambling to protect its investment and recently hired Paul Tagliabue, the former NFL

commissioner who also played basketball at Georgetown, as an adviser for the league.

In a recent interview with the New York Times, Tagliabue questioned the way the Big Ten was

handling its potential expansion, calling the evaluation process "very disruptive" and added

that it was having a "terrible negative effect" on leagues outside of the Big Ten.

In essence, the Southeastern Conference is already what the Big Ten is attempting to

become: a mega conference. That's especially the case in football where three different SEC

schools — Alabama, Florida and LSU — have combined to win the last four national

championships.

Initially, it appeared conference Commissioner Mike Slive was prepared to sit back and see

how everything would play out with the Big Ten but during a recent Southeast Region meeting of

the Associated Press Sports Editors, Slive sang a very different tune.

"We've always been known to be a creative league, be on the cutting edge," he said. "We're

not going to allow ourselves in any way, shape or form, to be anything less than what we are

now."

Does that sound like a man who would allow the SEC's basketball centerpiece —

Kentucky — to slip into the hands of the Big Ten? Texas, Texas A&M, Miami, Florida State

and Clemson are all rumored to be candidates to join the SEC.

The Pac-10 made two moves recently that suggest it might be aggressive in terms of

expansion by filling high-ranking positions with people who have heavy backgrounds in

marketing. Last July, it hired Larry Scott as commissioner after he served six years as

chairman and CEO of the WTA Tour and recently tabbed Danette Leighton as its first chief

marketing officer. Leighton is currently the vice president of marketing and brand development

for Maloof Sports & Entertainment, owner of the NBA's Sacramento Kings and ARCO Arena. Utah

and Colorado are the schools most prominently mentioned for Pac-10 expansion.

Expansion equals profit

Why all this talk about expansion? Follow the money, said Tom McElroy, former senior

associate commissioner of the Big East and a graduate of St. Bonaventure.

"Membership in varying leagues are pressing conference offices to make more money," said

McElroy, now senior vice president/sports division of the Leffler Agency, a sports and

entertainment advertising agency. "The cost of business is going up for all of us. If you're

able to sit back and take a long-term view of where college athletics has come it's almost

like an evolutionary thing. If you apply simple laws of economics and marketplace, it makes

sense of what's happening: We're looking for a bigger piece of the pie."

Whatever happens will likely have a domino effect on other leagues. In 2003 major expansion

trickled down all the way to the Mid-American Conference, where Marshall and Central Florida

left for openings in Conference USA.

Potential expansion, like others in recent memory, is generated largely because of

football. The objective for most schools in the 119-member Football Bowl Subdivision is to

gain a coalition in one of the six money-spinning Bowl Championship Series conferences, which

essentially control college athletics and millions of dollars in revenue.

The Pac-10 generates approximately $100 million in annual revenue while the Big Ten and

Southeastern conferences are reportedly over $200 million. Both the Big Ten and Pac-10 want to

add a conference championship game that could net each league an estimated $15 million to $20

million. The Big Ten paid each of its member schools $22 million last season from TV and bowl

revenue.

"It's likely that the Pac-10 goes to 12," McElroy said. "The question isn't if the Big Ten

goes to 12 but if they go to 14 or 16. It could be a trickle down effect or an explosion."

Joining a BCS conference also ensures schools of finishing in the black.

"The only schools that have a shot of getting out of deep red ink are the ones in major

conferences," Jay Coakley, a sports sociologist at the University of Colorado at Colorado

Springs and the author of "Sports in Society" told the Times recently. "It's just basically a

survival tactic. For the most part, schools aren't looking to make money; they're just trying

to cut losses."

So with all of the changes rocking the world of college sports, where does that leave a

school like the University at Buffalo?

Growing the UB program

UB has some qualities that make it attractive for a league like the Big East, like the fact

it is a major research and development institution. Buffalo's location also fits the league's

landscape.

Joining the Big East would give UB more television visibility, a shot at an automatic BCS

berth and a multiple-bid basketball league.

"Ever since I got here there were some people at UB who said we belonged in the Big East,"

Manuel said. "I tend to focus on where we are now and obviously I have aspirations for us as

an athletic department."

UB has to have more to offer if it wants serious consideration from the Big East.

"You just can't say you want to be in another league," Manuel said. "You have to bring

something to the table to have success. You have to bring things to the table that help them

as well. This is not just about going into the Big East and saying, "Oh, this will be great

and will help us.' "

In these challenging economic times, UB more than likely isn't prepared financially to make

such a leap. Manuel estimates UB's total operating expenses — which totaled just over

$21.8 million in 2007-08 — are approximately $15 million less than the average football

playing institution in the Big East. Louisville's budget, for example, is $55.1 million.

"Buffalo's focus, and rightfully so, should be on growing and developing as a Division I

program and continue to take them in a positive direction they've taken over the last three or

four years," McElroy said. "That's the main focus of their athletic staff, "How do we become

the best Division I-A program within our marketplace and resources, etc.'

"It also boils down to sustained success over a long period of time. Only recently has UB

been considered a conference contender in some of its sports, especially in football, where

the Bulls have enjoyed only one winning season since 1999.

"What we need to be here at Buffalo is to be consistently good in our sports and what we do

on the field of play," Manuel said. "Academically, we're a solid institution and our student-

athletes are performing at a high level in the classroom overall. But athletically right now

we haven't maintained that consistency."

Now, everyone has to sit back and wait to see what the Big Ten will do before moving

forward.

"I think for Buffalo to be impacted there would have to be a huge intrusion by the Big Ten

where the Big Ten does go to 14 or 16 and because of that three or more Big East suddenly get

moved around," McElroy said. "Then there's shock waves that could effect the ACC and SEC. If

there's two to the Pac-10 and one to the Big Ten, then there's no effect on Buffalo."