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Bills' decision on top pick looms large
Updated: August 21, 2010, 10:02 AM
Need versus best player?
That will be the gut-wrenching question for the Buffalo Bills heading into the NFL's three-day draft, which begins tonight.
Offensive tackle and quarterback are clearly the Bills' biggest needs, but General Manager
Buddy Nix said at last week's pre-draft news conference that the team isn't going to force the
issue with the No. 9 selection.
The News' Mark Gaughan gives his analysis as to what the Bills will do with their top pick:
"Our philosophy is to put as many good players on this team as we can," he said. "We would
like to fill a need, but if we can't, we want to make sure we don't compound the problem by
putting another one in that position that cannot play."
The Bills, like most teams, rank Russell Okung of Oklahoma State and Trent Williams of
Oklahoma as the top two offensive tackles in the draft. Both are expected to be gone before
the Bills are on the clock for the ninth pick. Iowa's Bryan Bulaga is not as athletic a left
tackle prospect as Williams or Okung, but he would be a solid pick for the Bills.
The tougher call at left tackle would be Anthony Davis of Rutgers. Most scouts agree he has
the most upside of any prospect at his position. But at 20 years old, there are some concerns
about his maturity and how long it will take him to realize his potential.
"He has gotten better and he keeps getting better," Tom Modrak, the Bills' head of college
scouting, said of Davis. "I would expect he would continue to get better. That is always the
tough judgment on young guys, how fast does that come, how quick does he get to the point you
want it to be."
At the NFL Scouting Combine in February, Nix suggested that the Bills' inclination would be
to pass on a quarterback with the ninth pick. That would seem to rule out Notre Dame's Jimmy
Clausen. He's one of the top two QBs along with Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, but Clausen would be
too expensive for someone the Bills aren't totally sold on.
A lot of draft analysts have the Bills taking Florida quarterback Tim Tebow in the second
round. But will he be available at No. 41 or do they have to move up to get him?
Bills coach Chan Gailey said last month that he would like to have the quarterback
situation resolved before the draft, but would keep his options open. His stance has not
changed.
"It may not be set until we go to training camp and it may not be set until we come out of
training camp," he said during a conference call Wednesday. "I wish I could tell you that
there was one guy that had proven himself and that we're rock solid who it's going to be. But
I can't tell you that. We're continuing to explore all possibilities."
So if the Bills don't address quarterback or left tackle with their first pick, who will be
the best player available at No. 9? There is no shortage of options.
Alabama inside linebacker Rolando McClain fits the profile of best player available. The
Bills already have three veterans at the position with Paul Posluszny, Kawika Mitchell and
free agent signee Andra Davis. But McClain might be the safest pick because he's one of the
most NFL-ready players in the draft and has experience in the 3-4 defense the Bills are
implementing this offseason.
Georgia Tech defensive end Derrick Morgan is the draft's most polished pass rusher and
would also fill a need. He probably fits better in a 4-3 defense, but Modrak believes the 6-
foot-3, 266-pound Morgan has the athleticism to make a smooth transition to outside linebacker
in a 3-4 scheme.
Taking Morgan also would protect the Bills if Aaron Schobel retires or if last year's top
pick, Aaron Maybin, and Chris Kelsay struggle in their conversion from defensive end to
linebacker. It's important to note that Morgan was recruited to Georgia Tech by Gailey, who
was the Yellow Jackets' coach.
Clemson running back C.J. Spiller would make sense if the Bills are planning to unload
Marshawn Lynch. Nix insists the Bills aren't shopping Lynch, but that can't be ruled out. They
could use Lynch as trade bait to try to move up in the early rounds. As dynamic a player as
Spiller is, the Bills wouldn't take a running back that high in the draft to be part of a
three-man rotation.
Tennessee defensive tackle Dan Williams has been on the rise. He's projected as a nose
tackle. A lot of draft people think he could go as high as No. 12 to the Miami Dolphins. The
Bills could pull the trigger on Williams at No. 9, but there is a growing sense that they
think they can make it work with Kyle Williams manning the nose. Besides, there are nose
tackles in the second or third round who will cost a whole lot less.
Some other players who might be there at No. 9 include Tennessee safety Eric Berry,
defensive ends/outside linebackers Jason Pierre-Paul of South Florida and Sergio Kindle of
Texas and wide receivers Dez Bryant of Oklahoma State and Demaryius Thomas of Georgia Tech.
Berry may be the best player in the draft, but the Bills don't need him because they have a
Pro Bowl free safety in Jairus Byrd. Pierre-Paul and Kindle are outstanding pass rushers, but
Morgan is a safer choice. Pierre-Paul played just one season at South Florida, and Nix made it
clear he doesn't like one-year wonders. Bryant would give the Bills another big-play receiver
opposite Lee Evans, but teams are wary of Bryant's character issues. Thomas would be a reach
at No. 9.
The Bills can go a lot of different ways in the first round. But they need a hit in the
worst way with their first pick after some bad misses in the past decade — Erik Flowers,
Mike Williams, J.P. Losman, John McCargo and Lynch.
"We play every scenario we can think of," Nix said. "We play what-if games all the time and
it's fun. It is competitive. We try to cover everything that can happen. There will be a good
player there and we just need to make sure we get him."
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