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Sullivan: Buffalo's brackets will be tough

Published:March 15, 2010, 7:23 PM

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Updated: August 21, 2010, 9:49 AM

Still aglow over Ryan Miller's performance at the Olympics, Buffalo sports fans have another

reason to puff out their chests in a show of civic pride. The NCAA Tournament brackets were

released Sunday, and our subregional might well be the toughest of them all.

You can relax now. Syracuse is coming to HSBC Arena, as we were hoping all along. The

Orange will play here as the No. 1 seed in the West, against Vermont. As you ought to know by

now, the NCAA has some teams play in four-team pods outside their actual region to give the

high seeds the opportunity to play the subregionals close to home.

In the old days, when the first two rounds were arranged in conventional geographic

fashion, you couldn't have a No. 1 and No. 2 seed playing at the same site. Now it's fairly

common. So West Virginia, the No. 2 seed in the East, will join Syracuse in Buffalo for the

first two rounds on Friday and Sunday at the arena.

The same scenario played out in 2004, when Saint Joseph's came to Buffalo as a No. 1 seed

and Connecticut played here as a No. 2. UConn, as you might recall, went on to the win the

national championship in San Antonio.

This time, the top two teams in the Big East — which has eight teams in the field

— will be here. Based on the evidence, we have two of the country's five best teams.

West Virginia is fourth in the latest RPI power rankings, Syracuse fifth. Dan Guerrero, head

of the selection committee, said there was "considerable deliberation" about West Virginia as

a No. 1 seed.

So that's not bad, having a No. 1 and a Mountaineers team that was on the fence for a top

seed. There are eight subregional sites. The only other site with two seeds that high is

Oklahoma City, where Kansas (a No. 1 seed) and Kansas State (a No. 2) got the geographic

advantage.

Hoop fans partial to the Big 12 might contend that Oklahoma City has the most powerful

subregional. There will be plenty of time to argue about the Big East versus the Big 12 over

the next three weeks. The Big 12 placed seven teams in the field, second only to the Big East.

Whatever the case, there's a decent chance the eventual national champion could come out

of Buffalo, as it did in '04.

Fretful SU fans, however, might be worried about the Orange getting out of Buffalo. Center

Arinze Onuaku hasn't practiced since hurting his right quadriceps in SU's quarterfinal loss to

Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. The Orange are thin to begin with and could be

vulnerable if Onuaku is hampered by the quad.

No. 1 seeds are 100-0 in the first round since the tournament expanded to 64 teams (now 65)

in 1985. Of course, if SU fans are looking for reasons to anguish, Vermont has one victory in

its NCAA history — an upset of Syracuse in the first round of 2005.

Vermont, which will become the only team to play in Buffalo twice since the NCAA began

playing subregionals here, has very little chance of shocking the world. Morgan State, which

takes on Bob Huggins and West Virginia, isn't likely to pull an upset, either.

The No. 2 seeds are 96-4 since the Big Dance expanded. A 15th seed hasn't turned the trick

since Hampton beat Iowa State in 2001. (I'd point out that Syracuse lost as a No. 2 to

Richmond in 1991, but 'Cuse fans are dealing with enough angst as it is.)

This is where my mixed feelings come in. The problem with having a subregional that's

loaded at the top is you don't have any of the first-round matchups that tend to produce

upsets. Some of my favorite NCAA moments have been covering upsets on the opening day. The

most memorable NCAA games at the arena were Pepperdine over Indiana in 2000 and VCU upending

Duke in '07. Both were No. 11 seeds beating No. 6.

But we have some compelling teams in the matchups opposite the Big East powers. If America

is going to tune in to see a big upset in Buffalo, it'll be on Sunday, when SU and West

Virginia run up against solid mid-level opponents on the way to the Sweet 16.

Gonzaga, the gold standard of mid-major men's hoops, will be here as a No. 8 seed against

Florida State of the ACC. Gonzaga is making its 12th straight NCAA appearance and has made

five Sweet 16s. FSU was upset by Wisconsin as a No. 5 seed in last year's opening round.

Clemson and Missouri should be a fast-paced and larcenous affair. Missouri leads the nation

in steals. Clemson is eighth. Either team could give West Virginia a tussle in the second

round. If Syracuse finds itself in hot water, it can draw strength from a Western New York

crowd that is sure to root on the Orange as their home team, the way the fans did in Albany in

2003.

The same won't be true for West Virginia. When there's an upset in the making, the neutral

crowd has a way of adopting the underdog. Come Sunday, we might get the highlight of our NCAA

weekend when the Mountaineers try to survive a hungry, upset-minded foe.

If it happens to be Missouri, my alma mater, rest assured that I will be on my most

objective and dispassionate behavior.

NCAA Tournament in Buffalo: The News' First Round Preview, Part One

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