Breaking down tonight's matchup.

Well-grounded Jet

Jets RB Thomas Jones had the game of his life in the first meeting, shredding the Bills for a

career-high and franchise-record 210 yards. It was part of a 318-yard rushing performance by

the Jets. The good news for the Bills is they won't have to deal with the more explosive Leon

Washington, who had 99 yards in the previous matchup but is out with a broken leg. The bad

news for the Bills is Jones did far more damage against them. Rookie RB Shonn Greene has had

his moments as Washington's replacement. The Bills' run defense has shown improvement the last

two games. A similar effort will be needed to slow the Jets' attack.

On a roll

What a difference QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has made for the Bills' offense. Just ask WR Terrell

Owens, who has caught 14 passes for 293 yards and two touchdowns since Fitzpatrick replaced

Trent Edwards. Owens has exploited single coverage against rookie cornerbacks for big plays.

But he might not have the same success against Jets All-Pro CB Darrelle Revis, who previously

held Owens to 13 yards on three catches. Revis' ability to cover Owens one on one would allow

the Jets to devote more attention to Lee Evans and the Bills' other receivers. If Revis and CB

Lito Sheppard don't need help in coverage, head coach Rex Ryan will be free to unleash his

trademark blitzes on the Bills' patchwork offensive line.

Color him cautious

The Jets' new color-coding system to remind rookie QB Mark Sanchez of game situations worked

well against Carolina, but can the mistake-prone Sanchez continue to adhere to a game plan

that calls for him to take fewer chances? His high-risk approach has resulted in 17

interceptions, five of which came against the Bills in the previous meeting. The Bills

confused and frustrated Sanchez by mixing their pressure packages and disguising coverages.

Look for them to try to bait him into more bad decisions.

Freddy is ready

RB Fred Jackson rewarded interim coach Perry Fewell's faith in making him the starter by

gaining 116 yards from scrimmage (73 rushing) last week. The offense runs much more smoothly

with Jackson than it does when Marshawn Lynch is the primary ball carrier. That doesn't mean

the Bills should ignore Lynch, whose power running style and speed make him a constant threat.

But Jackson's versatility gives the offense more flexibility. The Jets' run defense hasn't

been the same since losing stud NT Kris Jenkins to a knee injury against the Bills. But the

Jets, who are second overall in defense, are adjusting to his absence. They held Carolina to

only 75 rushing yards, 84 less than the Panthers' average, which ranked third in the NFL going

into the game.

Home-field (dis)advantage

Although tonight is a home game for the Bills, their game in Toronto had the feel of a

neutral-site contest a year ago. In fact, Miami fans were far more vocal during a Dolphins

win. The Bills figure to have more supporters in the stands, but the Jets figure to have a few

supporters as well. There also will be those neutral observers whose support will be up for

grabs. If it's a partisan Bills crowd as expected, the team will need to keep them in the game

so the fans make it hard for the Jets to call plays. If the Jets can grab an early lead, they

will take the crowd out of the game and therefore minimize any advantage the Bills might

have.%

Prediction

The offense came through last week. Tonight, it's the defense's turn. Bills, 19-16.