Quarterback Mark Sanchez of Southern California is the wild card that could cause a shake-up in the first round of today’s NFL draft.

Sanchez started only 16 games in his college career, but his poise, intelligence and intangibles could create a trade market for teams picking in the top 10.

Cleveland has the fifth overall pick. Prevailing opinion is new Browns coach Eric Mangini isn’t sold on either of his quarterbacks, Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Mangini also would like to trade down and garner more picks.

The Browns could be on the move early today if they can get a willing trade partner.

Here is a forecast for today’s first round:

1. Detroit. Needs: Everything but a stadium. The Lions reportedly agreed to a six-year deal with Matthew Stafford on Friday night worth $41.7 million in guarantees and as much as $78 million, making the pick a mere formality. The Leos were last in defense last year, but have had just one QB appearance in the Pro Bowl in the last 51 years. That was by Greg Landry in 1971. Pick: Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia.

2. St. Louis. Needs: T, WR. The Rams have lost 27 of their last 32 games and have the second pick for the second straight year. They have just one bona fide tackle on the roster in Alex Barron. Donny Avery is their most experienced receiver and he has 53 career catches. T is the big need. Pick: Jason Smith, T, Baylor.

3 Kansas City. Needs: pass rusher, LB, speed WR, T. The Chiefs had just 10 sacks last year and will be going to some 3-4 defense. Tyson Jackson is an ideal 3-4 defensive end. Would they take him this high? Aaron Curry is possible, but K. C. added Zach Thomas, Mike Vrabel and Monty Beisel to get them through this year at linebacker. Pick: Eugene Monroe, T, Virginia.

4 Seattle. Needs: OLB, T, QB, WR depth, S. Key issues include: T Walter Jones is coming off microfracture knee surgery. QB Matt Hasselbeck missed nine games last year with a back injury. Pick: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest.

5 Cleveland. Needs: pass rusher, 3-4 OLB, S, WR, RB. The Browns only have five picks and want more. Expect the Braylon Edwards trade to happen. They will try to trade Quinn. The prediction is someone moves up here and the Browns move down. Pick: Mark Sanchez, QB, USC.

6 Cincinnati. Needs: T, C, WR, RB depth, pass rusher. They will go with probably the best O-lineman of the bunch. Pick: Andre Smith, T, Alabama.

7 Oakland. Needs: WR, T, S. It’s always about speed with the Raiders. QB JaMarcus Russell has nobody to throw to. Logic says Michael Crabtree. They go with the fastest wideout on the board. Pick: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland.

8 Jacksonville. Needs: WR, DT, S, T, third CB. The Jags got Torry Holt, but they’re still hurting at WR. Dennis Northcutt and Mike Walker are their other two WRs. Since dealing Marcus Stroud, the Jags haven’t been able to play the type of middle-clogging defense they like. Pick: B. J. Raji, DT, Boston College.

9 Green Bay. Needs: DE, LB, T, RB, S, DB. GM Ted Thompson has traded down 13 times in his first four drafts. Watch for it. They would like Raji or an offensive tackle. But a perfect fit at defensive end is here. Pick: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU.

10 San Francisco. Needs: T, edge rusher, WR. They’re content to go with the QBs they have instead of taking one in the first round. Pick: Michael Oher, T, Mississippi. 11 Buffalo. Needs: DE, LB, T, TE. All the defensive ends are here in this projection. But the suspicion is the Bills are going with the player they have the most conviction for, regardless of need. So flip a coin between the two Trojan linebackers, Brian Cushing and Clay Matthews III. Pick: Brian Cushing, OLB, Southern California.

12 Denver. Needs: NT, OLB, ILB, DE, WR. If they pick a QB, they’ve basically admitted they screwed up in trading Jay Cutler. Don’t see that happening, because they’re sticking with Kyle Orton. Aside: Mike Shanahan ran 14 drafts, and the Broncos only have three No. 1s from those years and only two are starters. Pick: Clay Matthews III, OLB, Southern California.

13 Washington. Needs: pass rusher, OLB, RT. The ’Skins only have five picks, and after this, they don’t pick again until No.

80. They traded the second-rounder for Jason Taylor (bad move). Can they trade up to get Sanchez? Pick: Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas.

14 New Orleans. Needs: S, DE, CB, RB. The Saints have only four picks. If they have to move him to safety, that’s fine with them. Pick: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State.

15 Houston. Needs: OLB, RB, FS. The Texans would take Cushing, Matthews or Jenkins. Pick: Chris “Beanie” Wells, RB, Ohio State.

16 San Diego. Needs: DE, ILB, OL, S. The Chargers would love Jackson. He’ll be long gone. They would like Wells, too. Pick: Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois.

17 N. Y. Jets. Needs: WR, QB, DE, RB. Obviously, forecasting Crabtree to fall this far is going out on a huge limb. There are some character questions. The alternate pick is Percy Harvin. Pick: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech.

18 Denver. Pick: Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi.

19 Tampa Bay. Needs: DL, CB, WR. The Bucs are in a total overhaul, with new men at GM, head coach, both coordinators and QB. Defensive chief Jim Bates would like Jerry. A wideout is possible. Pick: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State. 20 Detroit. QB, DT, T/G, LB, DB. At one point late last year, the Saints converted 11 straight third downs on the Leos. Pick: Evander Hood, DT, Missouri.

21 Philadelphia. Needs: RB, G/C, TE, WR, DE. Brian Westrbook is about to turn 30 and has a balky knee. Pick: Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia.

22 Minnesota. Needs: RT, WR, CB, DT, C. It would be a surprise if Jeremy Maclin falls this far. Harvin is a possibility. So is a tackle. Pick: Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri.

23 New England. Needs: pass rusher, CB, S, LB. Bill Belichick has six picks in the first 97. Expect Pats to move up, down, all around. The defense was 26th on third down. Pick: Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee.

24 Atlanta. Needs: OLB, SS, TE, CB. Pick: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State.

25 Miami. Needs: CB, WR, pass rusher. Harvin is here but we’re not sure if he’s a Bill Parcells kind of guy. Pick: Rey Maualuga, MLB, Southern California.

26 Baltimore. Needs: TE, T, WR. This works out perfectly for Ozzie Newsome. Pick: Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State.

27 Indianapolis. Needs: WR, DT, OLB, RB, T. The Colts would be lucky to get him here. Pick: Percy Harvin, WR, Florida.

28 Buffalo. Want to fill need for a starting right tackle. Pick: Eben Britton, T, Arizona.

29 N. Y. Giants. Needs: WR, T, MLB. Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress were cut. Pick: Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina.

30 Tennessee. Needs: WR, CB, OLB, T. Pick: Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers.

31 Arizona. Needs: RB, OLB, TE. They are expected to release Edgerrin James. Pick: Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut.

32 Pittsburgh. Needs: OL depth, DL, CB. Pick: Alex Mack, C, California.