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Sabres’ playoff hopes in need of an assist

Published:April 6, 2009, 7:53 AM

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Updated: August 20, 2010, 10:02 PM

The Buffalo Sabres can finish the season with 93 points. The New York Rangers, in possession of the Eastern Conference’s final playoff spot, can finish with 95.

It doesn’t take Will Hunting to do the math and surmise the Sabres need the Rangers to lose at least once. An analysis of the schedule concludes that is possible. New York’s final three games are against playoff teams, so the Sabres may get help.

First, they have to help themselves.

The Sabres’ chances of making the playoffs go up with every game they win. If they win the final four, it leaves their competitors with little room for error.

The final week of the regular season starts tonight, and it merely kicks off with the defending Stanley Cup champs. The Detroit Red Wings visit HSBC Arena, looking to sweep the two-game season series with the Sabres.

Detroit, which snapped a three-game losing skid Sunday by beating Minnesota, toyed with the Sabres in the first meeting. Only Ryan Miller kept the score from getting beyond the 3-1 final. The Red Wings rolled up a 48-22 shot advantage in Joe Louis Arena, and Miller defended most of the jabs with 45 saves.

Detroit averages a league-best 36.5 shots per game, so it could be more of the same. Miller has had one day and 20 minutes of rest to get ready for it. The Sabres took Sunday off, and Miller sat out the third period of Saturday’s 3-2 loss to New Jersey. The goaltender is certain to be back in the crease since a victory is virtually a necessity.

“It’s a tough situation right now,” Miller said. “We put ourselves in a tough spot.”

The 10th-place Sabres are four points behind the Rangers, who have played one more game. The bottom line is they need to win and hope for New York to lose.

“We’ve got to hope again for other teams to help us out,” Sabres left wing Jochen Hecht said. “We’ve still got to focus on the next game and win that.”

As dire as things seem, the Sabres do have a couple of things in their favor should they conclude the season with a four-game winning streak and get the desired losses by the Rangers and ninth-place Florida Panthers:

A 93-point tie between the Sabres, Rangers and/or Panthers would give Buffalo the final playoff spot.

The first tiebreaker is victories. The Sabres would have 42, the Rangers would have no more than 42, and Florida would have no more than 41. That knocks out the Panthers.

The second tiebreaker is points earned in head-to-head meetings. The Sabres picked up six of eight against New York, eliminating the Rangers.

No one can coast.

The Rangers host Montreal and end the year with a home-and- home series against Philadelphia. The seventh-place Canadiens and fourth-place Flyers are a combined 83-52-21 this season. The Rangers are 2-2 against Philly and 1-2 against Montreal.

The Panthers, who beat Pittsburgh on Sunday, close the season at Philly and Atlanta before returning home to host Washington. The combined record of those three is 124-87-25. Florida is 2-3 against Washington, 3-2 against Atlanta and 2-0-1 against Philadelphia.

Those scenarios favoring the Sabres involve one key component: the Sabres winning out and the Rangers and Panthers losing at least once. If New York doesn’t lose, it doesn’t matter what the Sabres do.

“We’re still in the eighth spot,” Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist said. “If we just do our job the rest of the way here, we’ll take care of business.”

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