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Saturday, November 21, 2009

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Gleason: Routs expose defects in NFL product

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Exact numbers weren't available, but estimates from Las Vegas had casinos losing some $10 million combined last Sunday after gamblers wagered on heavy favorites in a stream of blowouts. Apparently, it was the worst day on record for bookmakers when it came to the NFL.

Nobody should sympathize with the gambling industry given how much dough it raked in over the years from degenerates who thought they could somehow beat the system. For decades, oddsmakers were so accurate when setting betting lines that you couldn't help but wonder if games were fixed. It's one reason why people shouldn't bet.

Along came Black Sunday in Vegas.

Three games did the most damage. New England was a 15½-point favorite over Tampa Bay and won, 35-7. Indianapolis was giving 14 against St. Louis and rolled, 42-6. Green Bay was favored by nine and pounded Cleveland, 31-3.

"I can't remember a year when there's been such a disparity between the top-echelon teams and the lower rung," Tony Sinisi, odds director for Las Vegas Consultants, said by telephone earlier this week. "It's uncharted waters for us as lines-makers to have such a huge difference, a huge gap."

Check the scores. NFL parity, among other things, is a myth.

For a league that prides itself on its level playing field, the divide between the best and worst teams couldn't be greater. Forget win-loss records and examine the quality of play on any given Sunday. The NFL has weakened in recent years, confirming its greatest asset is a marketing machine that sells mediocrity or worse.

Is it me or is the NFL not nearly as interesting as it was years ago? The best coaches aren't coaching. Unprepared rookies are rushed into action to justify ridiculous contracts because the league lacks a rookie salary cap. Free agency has created a disconnect between players and fans, even in their home cities.

The Philadelphia-Washington game was dreadful. If you weren't a Buffalo or Carolina fan, the Bills-Panthers game was enough to make you crave Oakland visiting Cleveland in late December. It has been one brutal game after another. Luckily, a new super Walmart near my house will divert my attention this weekend from Cleveland-St. Louis.

"You have some really bad teams in the NFL. That's the problem," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "This year, there are so many teams with poor quarterback play, too many teams with poor generals. These teams can't compete when their defenses are on the field all the time. It's three-and-out or a turnover."

Sound familiar? Funny, but he was making a general statement about the league. Teams with quarterbacks among the top eight in NFL passer ratings had a combined a 37-8 record. Teams with quarterbacks in the bottom eight were 10-36. Teams in the middle create the illusion of strong competition.

Intelligent fans know better. Take the Bills. Their record shows they're 3-4 this season after two straight road victories, but they're not kidding anyone. It's a terrible team with a terrible quarterback situation, a terrible run defense and a terrible coach. Their record merely shows that, in three games, they were less terrible than their opponents.

"Sometimes, you can be 3-4 and be entertaining," Sinisi said. "I don't think that's the case with your Bills."

Ouch. I would bet the house on my inbox being overloaded with stick-to-hockey e-mails from fans flagging me for unnecessary roughness. Fire away, but my beef isn't with the Bills alone or the blowouts last weekend. It's with an inferior product in an overpriced league that somehow remains a sports superpower.

You know who's losing the most? It's not Vegas or the NFL. It's you.

bgleason@buffnews.com


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