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Sunday, November 22, 2009

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Inside Baseball

Should Jays, Tribe wave white flag for 2010 now?

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TORONTO—The trade deadline comes Friday and you’re going to see the usual deals of a big-money player from a bad team going to a contender (Matt Holliday from Oakland to St. Louis). That’s especially true in the case of a player like Holliday, who is going to be a free agent after the season anyway. Oakland got a nice haul of prospects for a guy it would have never re-signed.

But I spent a couple days last week in the Rogers Centre watching a completely different scenario. The Indians and Blue Jays are out of the race this year and have big parts they might be dealing. But if they pull the trigger, how do they justify to their fans giving up on 2010, too?

The Blue Jays, remember, were 27-14 and had a 3z-game lead in the American League East in mid-May before injuries started to decimate their pitching staff. If you trade Roy Halladay now—even though he’s not a free agent until after next season—there’s no chance to contend in ’10. If you keep him and the Shaun Marcums and Dustin McGowans of the world come back healthy, you do have a chance.

The Indians, meanwhile, hold a $9 million option on Cliff Lee for 2010 and a $7 million option on Victor Martinez. And they have a far better chance to contend than the Jays because they’re in the weak American League Central. Their only major hole to fill is in the bullpen. They’ve got enough offense. The word is that Fausto Carmona is close to getting back to the big leagues.

And they don’t have the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays to deal with. The Tigers, White Sox and Twins don’t inspire much fear.

Cleveland and Toronto are both tenuous situations. The fan bases are shrinking, with attendance down in both places. The Indians, in fact, are looking at drawing fewer than 2 million to Progressive Field for the first time since 2006. The Cavaliers own Cleveland and the Maple Leafs own Toronto.

Good luck selling season tickets in Toronto next season without Halladay. Likewise in Cleveland if you deal Lee and/ or Martinez. Maybe there’s a huge prospect haul to be had. Remember Bartolo Colon for Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips?

But that deal had a big asterisk because the Indians dealt with the woebegone Expos, who had an unknown rube named Omar Minaya as their GM. We’ve seen how well Minaya has worked for the Mets.

The Phillies are everyone’s choice in the Halladay sweepstakes and they’re reportedly in on Lee as a consolation prize, too. They have the prospects to deal (pitchers J. A. Happ and Kyle Drabek and outfielder Dominic Brown among them). They have the win-now urgency in trying to repeat as World Series champions.

But it’s sad to see two towns that spent years playing in full ballparks reduced to this. It’s one thing to look at the standings this year and face reality. It’s another thing entirely to give up on another season that hasn’t even started.

Perfecto wows Rays

Of all the crazy numbers from Mark Buehrle’s perfect game for the White Sox on Thursday against the Rays, my favorite is this from ESPN: Buehrle was on the mound for just 32 minutes. Amazing.

The Rays hit Toronto on Friday simply trying to make sure they treated the Buehrle gem as one loss and nothing more.

“To witness it on the negative side is not nearly as much fun,” said Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon, whose team became the first defending league champion ever victimized by a perfecto. “But nevertheless, it’s significant. You can see a guy like him doing that. He works fast, has great command and makes you put the ball in play. I do get [the significance] but honestly it is just a loss.”

Because Buehrle only throws in the high 80s and isn’t dominant, there didn’t seem to be anything special about his outing in the early going. But then the outs piled up.

“He really had command of his curveball but it’s hard to say he has exceptional stuff,” Maddon said. “He’s not the kind of pitcher where you say, ‘He has no-hit stuff today.’ But you know once he gets on a good roll, that if he keeps making good pitches . . . he’ll gain momentum.”

What about Buehrle as a Hall of Famer? Legitimate question now that Buehrle, Randy Johnson and Sandy Koufax are the only pitchers in history with a no-hitter, perfect game and World Series championship for the same team.

Buehrle is 133-90 with a 3.76 ERA over 10 seasons. He’s only 30 years old and this is his ninth straight year of at least 10 wins. What if he ends up with 230 or 240 career wins? Getting to 300 isn’t realistic anymore with five-man rotations so that’s really not the standard.

Imagine if Buehrle can pull in a Cy Young Award or perhaps another Series title to help his candidacy. And don’t forget his save—yes, save—in the 14th inning of Game Three of the ’05 World Series in Houston either. Clutch.

Niese’s numbers

A tip of the cap to Jonathon Niese, who joined the Mets rotation Saturday night in Houston and should stay there the rest of the season. The Mets have to find out what they have for 2010 in Niese.

As for his time in Buffalo, it’s hard to believe how bad Niese was in April-May (0-4, 7.96) and how good he’s been since the calendar hit June (5-2, 1.72). His last seven starts (5-0, 0.72) rate as perhaps the most dominant six-week stretch of any starter in modern franchise history.

Scouts coming through town have been marveling at the way Niese has gone more to a cutter to tie up hitters. Lots of strikeouts, lots of ground balls, lots of quick wins.

Coste finds new home

Old friend Chris Coste has quickly contributed for the Astros while playing first base for the first time since 2005. He was grabbed after getting put on waivers by the Phillies but won’t see much time at catcher with Pudge Rodriguez and Humberto Quintero manning that spot.

But Coste got four starts in seven games at first largely because Lance Berkman landed on the DL. And the Astros are suddenly creeping up in the NL Central. Coste played for manager Cecil Cooper in Indianapolis in 2004 and Houston GM Ed Wade initially brought Coste to Philadelphia.

“I kind of feel like an Astro all of a sudden,” Coste told MLB.com. “That’s the biggest thing when you join a team in the middle of the year and then you get a chance to play, you definitely want to help your team win and personally succeed. There’s nothing that will welcome you to a team like helping your team win.”

E-manager

Indians skipper Eric Wedge sat Shin-Soo Choo in Toronto on Wednesday, the outfielder’s first day off since May 7. The problem—it was Korean Heritage Night and a good representation of Toronto’s large Korean population and Korean media were on hand to watch Choo play. Wedge did not know about the promotion.

“I have no problem with that,” said Choo. “It was Eric Wedge’s decision. He may have felt someone could have helped the team more.”

mharrington@buffnews.com


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