High expectations are in vogue, but pieces must fall into place
Updated: 09/04/08 9:46 AM
Three months later, Donte Whitner hasn’t softened his position one bit. You’ve seen him play football. Does he strike you as the sort of guy who would guarantee the playoffs and back down later? If anything, the Bills’ strong safety is more certain now.
“Expectations are out the roof,” Whitner said Monday. “Expectations are right out the roof. And that’s how you want it. You want to have expectations. If you go into the season and don’t have expectations, you’re going to get your butt kicked. I’ll tell you that right now.”
Whitner is only 23, but he enters his third NFL season as a respected leader and team spokesman. If he says this team should make the playoffs, you can be sure his teammates are right there with them, tired of all the waiting and the rebuilding and the excuses and ready to make a serious impact in the league.
And yes, that’s the way you want it. You want a team to expect big things of itself. You don’t hope for success. You expect it. The Bills feel they have earned the right to have high expectations. They’ve put in the work. They’ve been through the tough times. They believe they’re ready.
“I’ve heard that you judge a man’s worth by the amount of adversity he’s overcome,” Whitner said. “It’s the same with a team. Last year, we faced more adversity than any team in the NFL. We’ve been through it, but we’re still here. And we’re going to be a good football team.”
Evidently, he’s not alone. The Bills have sold more than 54,200 season tickets, the most since 1991. The Toronto venture has something to do with it. But fans believe this team is ready to compete for its first postseason berth since the 1999 season.
Still, I’ve learned to be wary of heightened expectations at One Bills Drive. Five years ago, a bunch of celebrated free agents came to town (Takeo Spikes, Sam Adams, Lawyer Milloy). Talk of a playoff run surged through town like an electrical current. The Bills finished 6-10.
In 2005, there were similar high hopes after a big finish in ’04. There was talk of the defense carrying a second-year quarterback, J. P. Losman. They went 5-11, prompting owner Ralph Wilson to clean house and bring back Marv Levy to restore hope and collegiality to his organization.
It’s one thing to have expectations, another to meet them. There’s justifiable excitement about this team. As Whitner says, they’ve been through the fire. The ’07 team endured a storm of pain and adversity, which included the career-ending spinal injury to Kevin Everett in the opener.
After an 0-3 start, they pulled together and won seven out of 10, putting themselves in the playoff hunt despite a patchwork defensive lineup and an offense that scored just 20 touchdowns, the fewest in franchise history for a 16-game season.
In two seasons under Dick Jauron, the Bills have been remarkably resilient. They never lost hope and found ways to stay in games. So it’s natural to wonder what they might accomplish with an older, deeper and more talented roster in a league with so many mediocre teams.
The players from the two Levy drafts are older and wiser. They’ve fortified a young defense with three veterans — Marcus Stroud, Kawika Mitchell and Spencer Johnson. Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is back after losing most of his rookie year to injury. Rookies Leodis McKelvin and Reggie Corner fortify a secondary that was forced to mix and match last season.
Late last season, the Bills were in the top 10 in the league in scoring defense. So if everything falls into place and they stay healthy, they’re capable of being a top 10 defense in yards and points allowed. If Posluszny is as good as advertised, and if Stroud’s ankle holds up, and if Mitchell is a playmaking force, they could have a defense that wins games and carries an average offense into the playoffs.
But there are a lot of “ifs.” We talk about the two solid drafts under Levy. But we still don’t know if John McCargo will be an impact defensive tackle. He has his moments, but he’s a long way from justifying the deal to move up and take him in the first round. There’s no guarantee that Stroud will recapture his Pro Bowl form, or that Posluszny will even be an average NFL player.
Then there’s the offense. It’s bound to be better, which is like saying the weather in New Orleans is bound to improve. They set a franchise record for fewest TDs, and you can’t lay it all at the feet of Steve Fairchild. They struggled because they were in turmoil at the game’s most important postion (quarterback) and because they lacked weapons in the passing game.
Trent Edwards should improve on his promising rookie season, but it remains to be seen whether rookie wideout James Hardy can be a reliable option and draw defensive attention away from Lee Evans. For now, Josh Reed is still the nominal No. 2. Reed is a pro’s pro, but if he keeps Hardy at bay, it’s not a very good sign.
Turk Schonert will be an improvement over Fairchild at offensive coordinator. A fencepost would be an improvement. But a coordinator is as good as his personnel. It’s hard to see them opening up much without another receiver to stretch the field.
So prepare for Edwards checking down and making throws underneath. Edwards has the intelligence, pocket poise and accuracy to move the chains. But he’s a second-year QB. Don’t be surprised to see a lot more of Rian Lindell in the red zone.
Then there’s Jason Peters. With playoff hopes in the air, it’s a bad time for your Pro Bowl left tackle to be holding out. he Bills are standing their ground, but the ground will get more shaky when opposing defenders start flying around Langston Walker and Kirk Chambers and putting Edwards’ anatomy in peril.
Jauron has done a decent job under the circumstances. But the Bills have have won two games in his two seasons against teams that went on to the playoffs. Their seven wins last year came against teams that were a combined 31-81. If they’re a real contender, they need to start beating the good teams, especially on the road.
He’s not on any hot seat. One of the reasons Wilson turned the football operation over to Russ Brandon, rather than go outside, was for continuity. Jauron is in good standing. His football vision prevails at One Bills Drive. Still, I still have questions about Jauron as a game-day coach. His clock management and command under pressure have been shaky at times.
The standard is raised. That doesn’t mean the Bills are a playoff team. After eight years of waiting, the need for fans to believe is greater than the reality. They’re capable of winning 10 games, if everything falls right. Maybe they have it coming after last year’s adversity. But they’re probably a year away. A 9-7 season won’t fulfill any guarantees. But it’ll be a step forward, and reason to send expectations through the roof again next year.
