The key to running a successful bluff is making the story believable.

So, the key to picking off a bluff is figuring out what doesn’t make sense, as young pro Matthew Brady did in this hand from the 2009 $25,000-buy-in World Poker Tour Championship at Bellagio in Las Vegas.

With blinds at $100-$200, top pro Daniel Negreanu raised to $400 from middle position. Respected pro Barry Greenstein called, as did Brady from late position with pocket 3s. The player behind Brady called, as did the small blind and Clonie Gowen in the big blind.

The flop came 10-7-3, rainbow, giving Brady a set. Both blinds checked. Negreanu made it $1,350. Greenstein folded.

“A lot of people do a ton of continuation betting,” said Brady, “but having played with Daniel, and from what I’ve seen, he doesn’t just blindly bet into six players with nothing, so I thought he had a hand. I have bottom set and I wasn’t going anywhere, but I didn’t need to do anything crazy. I just wanted to call and find out some more information.”

The player behind Brady folded, but both blinds called.

“The guy in the small blind was pretty tight,” Brady said. “I figured he’d fold and Clonie would fold, but they called, and I didn’t like it because there were a lot of draws out there.”

The turn came the 2 of spades. The blinds checked again. Negreanu bet $4,800.

“I called one more time, thinking that if the blinds had a draw they would give it up, because if they had a draw, you’re starting to give up a lot of chips.”

The small blind folded. Gowen raised it $10,000 more. Negreanu folded.

“I was surprised Clonie raised,” Brady said, “but I was happy to see Daniel fold because I was almost positive I had Clonie beat. She could have three 7s, but I didn’t think the way the hand played on the flop that she would just call as the fourth player in with middle set. She would want to protect her hand there.”

Brady called, and the two players took the 4 of diamonds on the river, potentially completing a small straight. Gowen bet out $22,000, an amount Brady found inconsistent with the story Gowen was trying to tell on previous streets.

“(A holding of) 5-6 is the only thing that made any sense,” he said. “The flop could’ve given her a gutterball. But if she hit a hand like that, she should’ve been betting $40,000 or something like that.”

Brady called and showed his set. Gowen mucked her cards.

“I could’ve re-raised the turn,” Brady said. “But if she has the three 7s, then I saved myself a lot of money. If she’s bluffing, then I’m going to pick up an extra river bluff, and I picked up an extra 22,000 doing that.”

Table talk

Gutterball: Another word for a gutshot straight draw, which can be completed only by hitting a card in the middle.