Poll shows many mull leaving state
Only 16 percent say they would never move away
Published: May 27, 2009, 12:30 am
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ALBANY — Count 100 people walking down the street and consider this: A new poll has found at least 20 of them are considering moving from New York State.
A poll by the Siena College Research Institute released Tuesday showed 11 percent of New Yorkers say they are going to move unless conditions in the state improve, while another 10 percent say they would like to move out “as quickly as I can.” Only 16 percent say they are never moving.
How many people would follow through on the threat is unknown, but the poll, according to critics, depicts a clear frustration many have with state and local taxes that fuel a high-tax reputation across the nation.
“It absolutely should be of concern to the governor and state leaders,” said Steve Greenberg, a spokesman for the Siena poll.
The poll found 52 percent believe the state is moving in the wrong direction, while only 33 percent say New York is going in the right direction. The rest don’t know or have no opinion.
It also revealed 36 percent have no plans currently to move from the state, while 25 percent say they might move out once they retire.
The poll revealed that 18 percent of Republican and 16 percent of Latino voters say they will move if things don’t improve, while 14 percent of voters ages 18 to 34 and 13 percent of upstate voters say they would like to move out as quickly as possible.
Whether the reason for disenchantment is high taxes, bleak job prospects or even long winters is uncertain because the poll did not ask why people would like to move.
But one business leader said New Yorkers are sending a clear message.
“It’s a disturbing number, and it’s a reminder that it’s not about the weather,” Kenneth Adams, president of the Business Council of New York State, said of the 21 percent the poll found is thinking about moving. That is up from 16 percent Siena found looking to move a year ago. “This is about economics,” he said, pointing to the state’s out-migration of residents even before the recession hit.,
“For over 20 percent of the nation’s third largest state to be very seriously thinking about moving should be a wake-up call,” he added.
Adams said the governor and Legislature should send a message “that they’re listening” to the disenchantment by passing one of a number of measures currently pending in Albany — capping property taxes or state spending, or making it easier to consolidate local governments.
Those most committed to the state include black voters — 26 percent of whom say they will never move — and New York City voters, 24 percent in the same category.
The poll found only 8 percent said the economy of the state is good and only 1 percent called it an excellent economy; the rest rated it either fair or poor.
One top state official sought to blame the recession.
Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, a Manhattan Democrat, believes the economic downturn would result in similar findings if the poll was taken in other states.
“People would think about going to find jobs wherever they can find jobs, but I don’t believe that’s different than any other state,” Silver said when asked why he thought so many are thinking about leaving the Empire State.
Gov. David A. Paterson said 140,000 people a year, on average, have left New York over the years in search of lower property and incometaxes— or places with fewer state mandates on local governments. That is why, he said, he wants an annual cap on state spending, a plan that has been received coolly by state lawmakers.
Still, Paterson said he believes fewer people “are moving now because other states are having the same difficulties” as New York.
Other states also are looking at tax hikes and spending cuts.
“So they are going to be making cuts and establishing income taxes or both,” he said of states where New Yorkers have fled over the years.
But Adams said New Yorkers are increasingly sensitive to increasing taxes at the state and local level, and are making simple decisions about what works best, financially, for their families. He said Albany’s overspending contributes mightily to the problem.
“We provide a level of government services that are greater than our economy can bear and more than taxpayers can bear,” he said.
The Siena poll also queried New Yorkers on other topics, and found:
• Support for legalizing same-sex marriage in New York has slid from a previous Siena poll a month ago, when 53 percent said they supported and 39 percent opposed the right. In the new poll, New Yorkers are split—46 percent to 46 percent — in favoring and opposing gay marriage. Democrats, younger voters and Jews support it, while Republicans, older voters, African-Americans, Protestants and Catholics generally oppose it.
Thirty-nine percent of opponents say they will be very disappointed if the Legislature passes a same-sex marriage law, while only 16 percent of supporters say they will be very disappointed if it fails.
• Paterson’s support among voters seems to have bottomed out, with 27 percent viewing him favorably and 60 percent unfavorably — statistically unchanged from a month ago. And he still loses badly if the election were held today to potential challengers, including Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Andrew M. Cuomo.
tprecious@buffnews.com
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