FOCUS: COLLEGE ENROLLMENT
Colleges cherry-pick from big pool as enrollment boom hits its peak
But projections show drop, greater diversity on horizon
Colleges back for the fall semester find themselves at the peak of an enrollment boom.
A record number of students graduated from U. S. high schools this year, giving colleges the pleasure of picking from a deep pool of incoming freshmen.
“It certainly helps,” said Michael Konopski, dean of enrollment management at Niagara University, “and it did allow us to be a little more selective.”
Niagara will have its largest freshman class in history. Ditto for Medaille College.
Fredonia State College received more applications this year than it ever has. Erie Community College is on track to have its highest enrollment ever.
But the bubble is about to burst. While the numbers coming out of high school have been growing steadily since the early 1990s to reach this year’s apex, projections show a dip in traditional college-age students on the horizon.
“We’re going to see a modest decline over the next seven to eight years,” said Brian Prescott, director of policy and research for the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, “but it’s going to be a big difference, because for a decade and a half it has been one increase after another.”
There’s another change ahead: a more diverse pool of college applicants.
Based on immigration and birth rates, projections show a rise in minorities graduating from high school, while the percentage of whites is expected to drop.
‘Echo boomers’
Colleges already are thinking about how demand for higher education might change in the next several years and what to do should their supply of candidates start shrinking.
It’s probably going to be more of a problem for some institutions than others — including many in New York.
“In the Northeast states, the decline is not going to be so mild,” Prescott said. “It’s going to be more significant, and there’s no real sign of it slowing down in virtually all states, except New Jersey.”
But for now, colleges are enjoying the moment. The numbers on campus these days have a lot to do with the huge demographic bubble known as the “echo boomers” — the sons and daughters of the baby boomers — working its way through the educational pipeline.
Since 1994, colleges have watched the number of high school graduates swell 35 percent to an estimated 3.3 million around the nation this year, a report by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education shows.
That’s even more than the 3.1 million who graduated from high school in 1977 during the height of the baby boom era, according to the National Center of Education Statistics.
Reaching out
There are other factors for the large number of applicants, local admissions officials said:
• More students are applying to more colleges.
• Institutions are reaching beyond traditional markets for students.
• Low tuition is making the State University of New York system particularly attractive.
“A lot of students are realizing ECC is a great option, because tuition is so affordable,” said Katharine Felschow, a spokeswoman for the college.
But the vast pool of recent high school grads is obviously part of the story this year, said Mark Petrie, associate vice president for enrollment management at Buffalo State College.
“Right now,” Petrie said, “we’re looking at our largest freshman class since 1992.”
Nationally, the number of public and private high school graduates is supposed to slow down after this year, slipping nearly 5 percent through 2015, the March report shows.
After that, levels are projected to pick up, but it will vary from region to region, Prescott said.
UB concerned
In the West, the number of high school graduates is expected to grow 5 percent between this year and 2022, while the South will enjoy about a 10 percent increase.
The Midwest, however, will see a 7 percent drop during that period, and the Northeast will see a 13 percent drop.
Projections by the New York State Education Department are similar.
The University at Buffalo — which saw a rise in applications this year, but kept its freshman class size stable — has a keen interest in the trends because of its long-term goal of growing by 10,000 students.
“We have a concern, like all institutions, in looking at this change,” said Michael Ryan, vice provost and dean for undergraduate education at UB.
“It’s very gradual,” added Gregory Florczak, vice president for enrollment management and undergraduate admissions at Medaille. “I think the next four or five years there still will be a reasonable amount of students graduating [from] high schools, but everyone is predicting [that] by 2012 we’re going to see a major decrease in this region.”
Declines have long been forecast, and colleges have been preparing so they can maintain enrollments — and academic standards.
NU taking steps
Niagara has been trying to grow its graduate programs and take steps to make sure it’s easily accessible to transfer students, particularly those at community colleges, Konopski said.
Medaille has more than tripled the number of open houses to showcase the college to prospective students and makes a point to have a counselor meet with any parent or student who inquires about the college to discuss financial aid, Florczak said.
And growing UB dramatically no doubt will be challenging, given the state’s fiscal and demographic trends, Ryan said.
But the university’s strategy is to boost its graduate programs, increase the number of out-of-state students and raise international enrollment.
Institutions are also trying to address that growing minority market.
UB has made an effort to work with Buffalo schools to help graduate and prepare more minorities for college.
Hilbert College picks a handful of minority high school students to live on the Hamburg campus for three weeks during the summer, when they can be tutored, mentored and steered toward a college education.
“We’re working some territories a little harder than in the past,” said Chris Dearth, director of admissions at Fredonia. “We have a more concentrated effort in New York City and Long Island, and we’re hoping our work in northeastern Ohio and Pennsylvania pays off for us.”
