On the Tube
Alan Pergament: Picking the Emmys in a strange year
It’s never easy to predict who will win Emmy Awards. And this year’s predictions may be the most difficult in years, since so many cable actors and shows were nominated because of the hit broadcast television took from the writers’ strike.
Things are so strange this year for the show, airing at 8 p. m. Sunday on ABC, that the network has tried to find a creative way to promote the telecast, including enlisting singer Josh Groban to perform.
The telecast is expected to honor cable stars and shows that get a much smaller audience than most network shows. In the top categories, 14 of the 32 nominations went to cable shows and stars.
It is equivalent to an Oscar telecast on ABC honoring small-budget, independent movies instead of big studio productions.
If you didn’t know ABC was aware of the potential ratings trouble, the decision to have popular reality show hosts rotate as Emmy hosts would have alerted you. When you are counting on Jeff Probst, Tom Bergeron, Ryan Seacrest (who was the solo host last year), Howie Mandel and Heidi Klum to draw an audience, you’re in trouble. OK, maybe not Klum.
However, they are household words compared to Jon Hamm, Michael C. Hall and Zeljko Ivanek, cable stars who have Emmy shots.
In an attempt to entice viewers who aren’t familiar with the theme music of “Mad Men,” “Dexter” and “The Closer,” ABC has enlisted Groban to perform TV’s greatest theme songs. It also is re-creating some of the sets of TV’s greatest shows and plans to announce the winners of an Internet vote of the all-time favorite moments in dramas and comedies.
I’m usually happy to bat 30 to 40 percent in predictions, but I’m going out on a limb more in this crazy season, so my expectations are much lower.
Without further ado, here are my picks for the top awards:
Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy: Two-time winner Jeremy Piven as abrasive agent Ari Gold on HBO’s “Entourage” owns this category and there’s no reason to believe he won’t repeat.
Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy: Amy Poehler, who has so many roles on “Saturday Night Live” (including Sen. Hillary Clinton) and soon will have her own NBC sitcom, is my surprising choice over four actresses in more traditional comedies. If not her, it’s Holland Taylor (“Two And a Half Men”).
Best Supporting Actor in a Drama: Michael C. Emerson, who plays the seemingly evil Ben on “Lost,” was the only actor in the series to be nominated. I’m rooting for him, but go with John Slattery of “Mad Men,” an actor whose face is much more recognizable than his name.
Best Supporting Actress in a Drama: What a category. Candice Bergen (“Boston Legal”), Rachel Griffiths (“Brothers & Sisters”), Chandra Wilson and Sandra Oh (“Grey’s Anatomy”) and Dianne Wiest (HBO’s “In Treatment”). My hunch is it is between Wilson, whose character unsuccessfully juggled work and a family, and Wiest, who plays a wise therapist. I’m rooting for Wilson.
Best Comedy Actress: The one category dominated by the networks, with Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“The New Adventures of Old Christine”) Christina Applegate (“Samantha Who?”) Tina Fey (“30 Rock”) and last year’s winner America Ferrera (“Ugly Betty”) competing with Mary-Louise Parker (“Weeds”). I’d pick any of the first three, but go with Applegate. Her sparkling performance made that show work, and she also is a sentimental favorite after having breast cancer surgery.
Best Dramatic Actress: Sally Field (who won last year for “Brothers & Sisters”) and 2006 winner Mariska Hargitay (“Law & Order: SVU”) compete against cable stars Kyra Sedgwick (“The Closer”), Glenn Close (“Damages”) and Holly Hunter (“Saving Grace”). On the theory it’s cable’s turn, and Sedgwick’s success led to Close and Hunter’s shows, go with Kyra.
Best Drama: AMC’s “Mad Men,” FX’s “Damages” and Showtime’s “Dexter” battle it out with network hits “Lost,” “House” and “Boston Legal.” The slow-moving and novelistic “Mad Men” is the popular choice of critics (it won a critics award in July), but I just can’t vote against “Lost,” which had an incredible season under trying circumstances.
Best Comedy: NBC’s “30 Rock” and “The Office” compete against CBS’ “Two and a Half Men” and HBO’s “Curb Your Enthusiasm” and “Entourage.” The “30 Rock” win in its rookie year may have helped it get a sophomore season. “Two and a Half Men” probably has an audience that is larger than the four other shows combined. But it hasn’t gotten much respect and there is no reason to think it will now. Go with “The Office,” an acquired taste that seems to get better with age.
Best Dramatic Actor: Four of the six actors in this category— Michael C. Hall (“Dexter”) Gabriel Byrne (HBO’s “In Treatment”), Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”), Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”) are in cable shows. Hugh Laurie (“House”) and James Spader (he won for third time last year for “Boston Legal”) fill the category. Never bet against Spader. But I’m going with Cranston — who took a brave dramatic part as a high school teacher gone bad after years as a sitcom star in “Malcolm in the Middle” — in a major upset. But I’d be happy if Laurie finally won.
Best Comedy Actor: Three-time winner Tony Shalhoub (“Monk”) would seem to be in a three-way race with Steve Carell (“The Office”) and Alec Baldwin of “30 Rock” in a category that also includes Charlie Sheen (“Two and a Half Men”) and Lee Pace (“Pushing Daisies”). Baldwin deserves it, but go with Carell, a classy and popular actor who plays the perfect clueless boss.
Best Miniseries: If HBO’s “John Adams” (which won the critics award) doesn’t win, it should demand a recount.
Best TV Movie: If HBO’s political thriller “Recount” about the 2000 presidential election doesn’t win, it will be ABC’s “Raisin in the Sun.” In a political year, go with “Recount,” which featured great performances and managed to be exciting even though we knew the ending.
