It didn't register at all on the national water cooler the next day. But it was, without doubt, the most emotionally revealing moment at the Golden Globes.

Jeff Bridges had just accepted the Best Actor prize, as he's almost certainly going to do tonight at the Oscars.

The camera switched to George Clooney at the "Up in the Air" table, where Clooney was leaning forward with a valiant but melancholy Good Sport smile on his face. Next to him, his girlfriend Elizabetta Canalis was tenderly massaging his back in a traditional partner gesture whose message couples everywhere understood: "It's OK, honey. It should have been your year, but obviously it's not. It's Jeff Bridges' year. I love you anyway."

In other words, no matter how extraordinary his star turn was in Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air," the biggest shot he may ever get at an Oscar was going to come up for naught.

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There's a certain kind of performance the Oscars simply don't recognize, and tonight's 82nd edition is going to be no different. Just as Cary Grant had to wait for a Life Achievement Oscar, so too may George Clooney, despite the fact that his charm is entirely responsible for "Up in the Air" existing at all and the only reason that people were able to watch a whole movie about a superficial, status-seeking corporate hatchet man as if it were a romantic comedy with a very sharp edge, and not an angry diatribe.

No praise is too high for what Clooney did in "Up in the Air," no matter how easy it is to take for granted. So that sweet, intimate, reassuring back rub might as well have been telling him, "You'll get your Oscar someday, honey. Just keep on being you and they've got to give you a Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Oscar sometime in the next 10 years. And keep on making movies as good as 'Michael Clayton' and 'Up in the Air' every few years and they'll give you a Lifetime Achievement Award before checkout time. So you'll be in the same company as Cary Grant, Charlie Chaplin and Alfred Hitchcock. Not bad, you know?"

Exes square off

It is, of course, another couple — former couple, that is — that is the big story at tonight's Oscars: directors James Cameron and Kathryn Bigelow, who were married from 1989 to 1991 and now face off with their films — Cameron's "Avatar," the highest-grossing film of all time, and Bigelow's mini-grossing "The Hurt Locker," the only film about the Iraq War that has been unanimously praised by people of every political stripe.

Cameron went on, after an amicable divorce, to marry two more times, Bigelow never again. But the subtexts are flying in this contest, and history is likely to be made tonight. How?

1. A woman — Bigelow — is almost certain to win the award for Best Director for the first time.

2. The entire film community of Los Angeles may get up on its hind legs and tell the world "we don't give a fig about all that 'Avatar' money. If it means we have to give another Oscar to James Cameron — for any reason whatsoever — we'll pass, thank you. It's better news for the universe if we give all possible Cameron Oscars tonight to his ex-wife."

The joy of ignoring Cameron despite all that filthy lucre, visual beauty and technological innovation, may be an international statement from America almost on par with electing Barack Obama.

You have to admit, this year is going to be good fun, no matter what happens. Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin can't hurt either, as co-hosts.

My Oscar picks began with a correct "say what?" call of "The Sting" as Best Film winner in 1973. Lately, my batting average has been edging up to .750 and better, but this year — with 10 nominees for Best Picture (like the old days) and an impossible-to-predict Best Actress contest — things are bound to go way south. But here's how the awards look to me:

1. Best Picture. Nominees: "Avatar," "The Blind Side," "District 9," "An Education," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds," "Precious," "A Serious Man," "Up," "Up in the Air."

Ten nominees? Sure, why not? It's the way the Oscars originally did things, and this way, no big crowd-pleaser like "The Dark Knight" (in the past) gets absurdly overlooked. It's a decent list with a couple of happy surprises — "District 9" and "A Serious Man" — and one not so happy, "The Blind Side."

The core of five that would have been nominated under the old rules was obvious: "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds," "Precious" and "Up in the Air." (In a perfect world, "Up" would have replaced "Basterds.")

Here's where things get a touch tricky with 10 nominees: In any other year, the brilliantly suspenseful "The Hurt Locker" might well edge out all that "Avatar" money and techno-dazzle. But with voters going every which way, undeserving drek like "Basterds" could sneak up on the rail if the Tarantino faithful remain solid.

Will it happen? Nah. I think the world will celebrate a new America with "The Hurt Locker."

If money worship and "Avatar" defeat widespread Cameron-phobia, prepare to throw pillows at your TV. If it's "Up in the Air," prepare to be saying "wow" repeatedly for a while.

2. Best Actor. Nominees: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"; George Clooney, "Up in the Air"; Colin Firth "A Single Man"; Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"; Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker."

Almost a sure thing: Bridges for "Crazy Heart." He's won everything else so far and for a very simple reason: this is the feel-good award of the night. He's been that good in movies for that long a time. And he's from a popular showbiz family. How much more awardable can one actor possibly get?

3. Best Actress. Nominees: Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"; Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"; Carey Mulligan, "An Education"; Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"; and Meryl Streep, "Julie and Julia."

The toughest award of the night. It was mind-boggling that fellow actors chose Bullock over Streep at the SAG Awards. Who says Miss Congeniality never triumphs? She is then, somewhat incredibly, the favorite tonight because actors comprise the largest single voting bloc.

But what if — just what if — enough people have seen "The Last Station" and can't decide between Bullock and Streep? Helen Mirren would actually have a shot.

This one is anybody's guess. The smart money says Bullock, which isn't as bad news as you might think. She'll either be sweet and funny accepting it or genuinely touching. Either way, the moment will be nice. If it's Streep, everybody knows how good her acceptance speeches are. It's win/win.

4. Best Supporting Actor. Nominees: Matt Damon, "Invictus"; Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"; Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"; Stanley Tucci for "The Lovely Bones"; and Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds."

Waltz has danced off with every award thus far and there's no reason to think he won't again tonight. ("Basterds" isn't likely to win anything else all night, thank heaven.) But it's a very good category. If, somehow, Plummer or Woody Harrelson sneak in under cover of darkness and steal the thing, the news would be good.

Not likely.

5. Best Supporting Actress. Penelope Cruz, "Nine"; Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"; Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"; Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"; Mo'Nique, "Precious."

Almost a gimme — Mo'Nique for "Precious." Anyone who sees the film understands why. She's that hair-raisingly good. It's the only big thing an entirely surprising film is likely to win all night. If Penelope Cruz hadn't already won an Oscar, she'd have been tougher competition for "Nine." But in 2010, Mo'Nique is a virtual lock.

6. Best Director. Cameron, "Avatar"; Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"; Quentin Tarantino "Inglourious Basterds"; Lee Daniels, "Precious"; and Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air."

History is likely to be made. It may not necessarily be for the right reason — because she really deserves the prize (which, in fact, she does) — but still Kathryn Bigelow is likely to be the first woman to win the Best Director Oscar. She's already won the Directors Guild Award, and people were mightily pleased at that, no matter how aloof she can be.

"The Hurt Locker," to some of us, was 2009's best movie by far. So why not, for pity's sake?

7. Best Adapted Screenplay. Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, "District 9"; Nick Hornby, "An Education"; Jesse Armstrong et. al., "In the Loop"; Geoffrey Fletcher, "Precious"; and Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for "Up in the Air."

An easy prize. "Up in the Air" is the movie that deserves it. And this, too, is its evening consolation prize for all those Oscars that could have been but won't be.

8. Best Original Screenplay. Mark Boal, "The Hurt Locker"; Quentin Tarantino, "Inglorious Basterds"; Oren Moverman and Alessandro Camon, "The Messenger"; Joel and Ethan Coen "A Serious Man"; and Pete Docter, Bob Peterson and Tom McCarthy, "Up."

Another gimme for "The Hurt Locker." Boal already won the Writers Guild award.

9. Best Song. "Almost There" and "Down in New Orleans" by Randy Newman for "The Princess and the Frog"; "Loin de Paname" by Reinhardt Wagner and Frank Thomas for "Paris 36"; "Take It All" by Maury Yeston from "Nine"; and "The Weary Kind" by Ryan Bingham and T-Bone Burnett from "Crazy Heart."

An honorable sure thing in a usually absurd and disgraceful category: "The Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart." Everybody wants to congratulate T-Bone Burnett just for being T-Bone Burnett — all the better in Ryan Bingham's company. If only Stephen Bruton had lived long enough to soak up some of the leftover love the movie will earn.

10. Best Animated Film. "Coraline," "Fantastic Mr. Fox," "The Princess and the Frog," "The Secret of Kells," and "Up."

Some of the most truly moving scenes in the entire American movie year were in "Up." Also, some of the most whimsical. It's just a great film and no award it gets could possibly be gratuitous.

11. Cinematography. "Avatar," "Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds," and "The White Ribbon."

"Avatar." Even here, for entirely different reasons, "The Hurt Locker" is not an impossibility, just an enormous unlikelihood.

12. Film Editing. "Avatar," "District 9," "The Hurt Locker," "Inglourious Basterds" and "Precious."

A sure thing for "Avatar." Or is it? Wait a minute. Magnificent editing is what makes "The Hurt Locker" the movie that it is. "Avatar" will probably win, but "The Hurt Locker" deserves it.

13. Foreign Film. "Ajami" from Israel, "The Milk of Sorrow" from Peru, "A Prophet" from France, "The Secret in Their Eyes" from Argentina and "White Ribbon" from Germany.

Not enough people are likely to have seen a sufficient number of Michael Haneke films to want to give an Oscar to almost ANYONE else. If they have, expect "The Prophet." If they haven't, ""White Ribbon" is the smart money choice.

14. Original Score. James Horner for "Avatar," Alexandre Desplat for "Fantastic Mr. Fox," Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders for "The Hurt Locker," Hans Zimmer for "Sherlock Holmes" and Michael Giacchino for "Up."

A rotten category. No one deserves it. Horner is the likelihood.

15. Art Direction. "Avatar," "The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus," "Nine," "Sherlock Holmes" and "The Young Victoria."

By all means, let the "Avatar" techies get their due and not pretend the movie deserves anything else.

16. Costume Design. "Bright Star," "Coco Before Chanel," "The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus," "Nine" and "Young Victoria."

So who gets this as a consolation prize for not winning anything else: "Young Victoria?" "Nine?" Neither, probably. How can they ignore a movie about Coco Chanel in a costume category?