Election Day Preview
Politicians expect light voter turnout in city
Could help GOP in comptroller, sheriff races
With no contest for mayor or other citywide office, an extremely light turnout is predicted within Buffalo city boundaries on Election Day 2009.
Though they won’t admit it, Erie County Republicans couldn’t be happier.
That’s because the county’s Democratic base in Buffalo is expected to basically stay home this year after the GOP failed to field a mayoral candidate for the first time since before the Civil War.
Combined with a dearth of Republican candidates in other heavily Democratic areas like Lackawanna and Cheektowaga —but lively races for supervisor in GOP-friendly suburbs like Amherst and Hamburg — the Republican prospects for countywide offices of sheriff and comptroller seem enhanced.
Democrats call it a calculated move designed to suppress turnout in their Buffalo base. Republicans say the situation reflects the reality of where they can win and where they can’t.
But just about all political observers agree the election will primarily hinge on suburban votes.
“There’s no doubt it’s calculated,” said Erie County Democratic Chairman Leonard R. Lenihan. “It’s a time-honored strategy to keep the vote down so their countywide candidates have a shot at winning.
“Not to be able to find one human being to run for mayor of the City of Buffalo is a pretty odd situation,” he added.
Though Buffalo Republicans traditionally fielded candidates in just about about every city race, they began to retreat in 2007 after growing Democratic registration made victory in Buffalo all but impossible.
Republicans entered only one Common Council candidate in the 2007 election, and city turnout fell off drastically from 2005.
When Republican Kevin J. Helfer mounted a full-scale mayoral campaign in 2005 — only to get clobbered by Democrat Byron W. Brown— city turnout totaled 74,623 voters, according to Board of Elections statistics.
But in 2007, with only one city Republican on the ballot, Buffalo turnout fell off significantly to 46,517 — a difference of 28,106 mostly Democratic voters. That supplied a major boost to the victory of Republican Chris Collins over Democrat James P. Keane.
“There has been basically no effort by [Republican] countywide candidates in the city; they’ve ignored the city,” Lenihan charged. “It shows their real feelings about urban America.”
Erie County Republican Chairman James P. Domagalski dismisses that view, pointing to the presence of Republican legislative candidates like Ted Morton against Democratic incumbent Thomas J. Mazur in a Democratic stronghold like Cheektowaga and Kevin Curtin in North Buffalo against Democratic incumbent Lynn M. Marinelli.
He also pointed out that Democrats have not fielded many candidates in a GOP bastion like Clarence, and that Republicans are proving more than competitive in several County Legislature races. “There’s no effort to suppress; no master plan,” Domagalski said. “If we wanted to suppress Democratic votes countywide, we would have given Marinelli and Mazur a pass.”
He also pointed out that, since he has become GOP chairman, he has rejected the concept of Democrats running on the Republican line as former Mayor Anthony M. Masiello did in 1997 and 2001. Though South Council Member Michael P. Kearns expressed interest in the Republican line this year before his defeat in the September Democratic primary, he found no enthusiasm in Republican Headquarters.
“If we were cynics, we could have found a Democrat like Mickey Kearns to run against Byron Brown,” Domagalski said. “But then you send a message that you’re all about power and not about ideas.
“We’ve stayed true to our message and true to our principles,” he added. “We’re not an echo; we offered no ‘Democrat-lite.’ We’re a choice.”
But the chairman also acknowledged that registration reality has also helped shape the situation. Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 140,000 voters in Erie County, he said, while only 16,245 Buffalo voters are registered Republican, compared with 112,037 registered Democrats.
“The reality is these elections cost a fortune,” Domagalski said, explaining few Buffalo Republicans were willing to devote the time and effort to a race with virtually no prospect of winning.
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