When Carl P. Paladino announced his Republican candidacy for governor last spring, most voters paid scant attention to the upstater with a penchant for outrageous comments.

But something is happening. Polls now show the Buffalo developer gaining in his challenge to Rick Lazio, who has the backing of party leaders. And Paladino's rising popularity may stem from the dynamics surrounding that rarest of the state's political happenings -- a Republican Party primary for governor.

As Paladino and Lazio square off in an event even less common than Buffalo Bills playoff victories, the upcoming Sept. 14 primary raises several questions:

* Will the most conservative members of the GOP dominate, just as the most liberal Democrats generally prevail in not-so-rare Democratic primaries?

* Will the ultra-conservative Paladino benefit more from that right-wing vote, or will the overwhelming support of the party organization help Lazio?

* Will turnout surpass the measly

12 percent of the only other GOP gubernatorial primary, when George E. Pataki beat Richard Rosenbaum in 1994?

* Or will the burgeoning "tea party" movement whip up a turnout frenzy this year?

Even top Republican leaders acknowledge they're venturing into uncharted political waters.

"Our party just doesn't do this," observed Nicholas A. Langworthy, chairman of the Erie County Republican Party.

A growing number of political observers, nevertheless, appear to agree that the primary contest means that Paladino's charge from the right wing of the party cannot be ignored.

"The Republican primary is not like the general election or the Democrats," Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said of the Paladino effect. "People pay attention; they are informed and conservative.

"The guy has a lot going for him," he added. "He's got a shot, and it's real."

Even the most ardent Paladino supporters acknowledge their man has a long way to go.

The latest Quinnipiac numbers show Lazio leading Paladino, 39 percent to 23 percent, among Republicans, with

33 percent undecided. But Lazio led the previous poll, on June 22, 46 percent to 17 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

"He's really moving," Carroll said of Paladino.

Barry Zeplowitz, a national Republican pollster based in Buffalo, said the typical Sept. 14 primary voter will not be the moderate "Rockefeller Republican" of old.

"At this point, Carl would most appeal to those people who want change regardless," Zeplowitz said. "It's all about turnout. And if the Republican conservative base is motivated, they will go with the guy they perceive has the stronger anti-Albany views."

Paladino, Zeplowitz added, has as much as $10 million to spend on his campaign, while, as of July 15, Lazio reported only $688,000.

Langworthy, one of only two Republican county chairmen in the state supporting Paladino, says he is encouraged by his candidate's claim on the conservative right, the tea party effect and Paladino's plan to spend so much of his own money. Paladino's "tough talk" against construction of an Islamic community and prayer center in the same Manhattan neighborhood where self-professed Muslim terrorists destroyed the World Trade Center resonates with Republican voters, he said.

"I think the most passionate voters in our party are the ones who will actually vote," Langworthy said. "We'll have the people who are the most conservative turn out."

Paladino, he said, has established a relationship with conservative voters that says, "He's one of us."

"Rick Lazio is not wrong on the issues," Langworthy said. "He just doesn't have that passion."

Michael R. Caputo, Paladino's campaign spokesman, says the Quinnipiac numbers do not accurately reflect the closeness of the race because it measured a relatively small pool of Republicans who are not those most likely to vote.

Not so fast, counters Robert E. Davis, a Langworthy predecessor as chairman of the Erie County Republican Party who is helping the Lazio effort in Western New York.

Davis pointed out that Lazio garnered 60 percent of the state convention vote in June, adding that such a showing accurately reflects the party.

All that party support will work for the endorsed candidate, he said, just as it did for Pataki in 1994.

"The county organizations are going to be asked by the leadership of the state committee to get out the base," Davis said. "In most cases, they come out for the endorsed candidate -- in this case, Rick Lazio."

Lazio insiders also emphasize that Paladino is still not well-known outside his Erie County base and that even

$10 million will not finance the saturation ads he needs to make him a household name.

But Paladino hopes the circumstances of this year's election -- especially the tea party vote most often identified with the right wing of the party -- will work in his favor.

Rus Thompson, a tea party activist running for state comptroller as the candidate of Paladino's Taxpayer Party, said tea party organizations are taking to the Internet to push the Paladino candidacy.

Because the groups are organized, he thinks they will spike the turnout in Paladino's favor, even if Republicans are not used to voting in primaries. Others point out that two statewide GOP primaries for the U.S. Senate and several for the State Senate around the state might produce a heavier-than-expected turnout.

"We'll be lucky to see 30 percent," Thompson said. "But we think the turnout will be greater in the primary this year because of the tea party movement."

Others, like pollster Zeplo-

witz, say the tea party effect might have peaked with last year's introduction of President Obama's health care plan.

"What is probably going to drive the September primary is who is going to clean up the mess in Albany," he said.

Still, on the morning after the primary, the campaign will take on a whole new dimension against Andrew M. Cuomo, the Democratic candidate heavily favored in the polls and whose campaign treasury eventually might top $30 million.

With the Cuomo camp counting on Democrats and moderate Republicans, the experts say Paladino would need a major turn toward the center after a primary campaign on the right wing.

And then he must contend with a Democratic opponent with vast resources who might remind voters of Paladino's controversial statements and the racist and pornographic e-mails he has acknowledged forwarding to friends.

"If they think Carl is going anyplace, they'll just lay out the stuff he has done and said,"

Zeplowitz said. "Then he'll have a tough time with those who are not in his base."

rmccarthy@buffnews.com null