When Kevin Gaughan circulated a flier stating that Williamsville residents pay $932 more in property taxes than residents in the town portion of Amherst, the head of the Village of Williamsville Citizen Study Group called his information "lies."

When the Citizen Study Group released a study this week claiming that village residents would pay even more taxes than they do now if the village were dissolved, Gaughan called the report "incomplete."

So what's really true?

The Buffalo News tested the most recent claims by both parties and found that neither group painted a completely realistic or accurate picture.

An analysis of Gaughan's figures shows that while village residents do pay more than town residents in property taxes and fees, the difference is about $300, not $932.

And contrary to the Citizen Study Group's report that Williamsville residents were likely to pay higher taxes and fees if the village government were dissolved, The News analysis found that taxes and fees would likely decrease.

What would happen if Williamsville government dissolved had been hotly debated in neighborhood lawn signs, front-porch conversations and neighborhood meetings.

But even though the village accounts for only 5,600 of Amherst's 116,500 residents, the issue is more than a neighborhood matter.

Williamsville represents the most high-profile attempt to eliminate a municipal governing body in Erie County, with Gaughan pledging to take his message to other villages.

Sloan and Farnham already have agreed to put the matter before voters.

What happens in Williamsville could be a sign of things to come.

Before the ballot showdown, however, Williamsville residents have a lot to sort out. Many are understandably confused by the conflicting information put out by Gaughan, the Citizen Study Group and others in recent months in anticipation of the Aug. 17 dissolution vote.

"I don't know what to believe, and who to believe, and I don't know where the figures are coming from," said John Chudy, 56, a village resident.

He and others have attended village meetings and kept up with media stories about the potential for village dissolution. But they still have questions.

While some simply aren't answerable, those related to taxes and cost can be addressed to some extent, based on existing and historical budget data. Both Kevin Gaughan and members of the Citizens Study Group have done their own research, and put forth their own findings.

The Citizen Study Group's most recent report attempts to answer the question of whether village residents would pay more or less in taxes and fees if village government were dissolved.

The group made many reasonable assumptions to reconcile the fact that town residents, unlike those in the village, pay special district taxes. It concluded that if the village is dissolved, the owner of a home assessed at $150,000 would face a potential tax increase of $86.

"Property taxes very likely could increase if the village is dissolved," the accompanying news release emphatically states.

Using many of the same assumptions as the Citizen Study Group, The News found the opposite.

What accounts for the discrepancy?

The News analysis finds the group misstated two key items:

È It assumed that, if the village were dissolved, the town would create a special water fund into which only former village residents would pay. The fund would pay for $3 million in water line repairs before the Erie County Water Authority, which handles the water supply for the rest of the town, could take over the system.

The group contends that this water fund would add $80 to a village resident's annual tax bill. The group assumes no similar charge if the village government remains.

But the repair work is necessary regardless of the village's status. The village water lines are extensively deteriorated, and the Village Board already has embarked on a study of the types and costs of water line improvements required for an eventual takeover by the water authority.

È The report also omits any reference to the town's water fees.

Unlike other Amherst residents, who get a water bill from the Erie County Water Authority, the village has its own water system and charges residents its own rate per 1,000 gallons.

That rate per 1,000 gallons is $1.91 higher than the county water authority rate. Using the Citizen Study Group's own annual water usage average of 120,000 gallons -- a figure used in the report to calculate the village sewer maintenance tax Ô village residents pay an average $229 more for water than those in the rest of the town.

Even if The News accepted the study group's assumption that $3 million in water system improvements would be made only if the town took over village functions, village residents would continue to pay the higher water rate, which has climbed by more than 9 percent in the last 1 1/2 years.

When adding the water rate difference into the Citizen Study Group's findings, village residents would pay at least $145 more in additional taxes and fees.

If the village borrowed $3 million for water line repairs, residents could initially end up paying at least $200 more than town residents until the county water authority takeover is complete.

Victor Paquet, a village Planning Board member and University at Buffalo systems engineering professor, who drafted the study, said The News' critique doesn't change the fundamental conclusions drawn by his report.

"The cost savings or burden is not going to be significant," he said. "The cost has very little to do with village administration, but rather sewage and water, services and cost."

The speculative findings by the Citizen Study Group and The News remain subject to unknown variables, such as what happens with village assets and debts, and the potential for additional savings from consolidating town and village services.

In addition, the village spends money for sidewalk snowplowing and other more minor services that the town does not provide.

Finally, the less water a household uses, the smaller the disparity between the town and village numbers. The Citizen Study Group assumes average water usage of 120,000 gallons, the county water authority's average for a family of four.

The Citizen Study Group isn't the only group doing faulty number crunching.

Gaughan is working on his own analysis of village numbers but already has distributed a flier stating that when it comes to property taxes, "Village Residents Pay $921.21 More Every Year!"

He attributed his information to the state Office of Real Property Services.

The $932.21 figure is based on 2007 tax data, comparing the school, county, town and village property taxes on a $150,000 village home in the Williamsville School District against the school, county and town taxes on a $150,000 Amherst home in the Clarence School District. He said he picked the Clarence district because it produced a tax figure in the middle range for the town.

Aside from comparing figures from two different school districts, Gaughan's base tax comparison omits many of the special district taxes that non-village residents pay for sewer, lighting, garbage, drainage and fire services.

Williamsville doesn't have special districts, so all these service-related taxes are rolled into the village's base tax number.

Gaughan's numbers don't reflect comparatively taxed services, but the recent work produced by the Citizen Study Group conveniently fills in those gaps.

The News found that after using more recent and comparable tax data, accounting for special district taxes, and including the additional money village residents pay for water, village residents still pay about $300 more.

As with the previous analysis, the less water used by a household, the smaller the difference.

stan@buffnews.comnull