Over the last few years, student performance has soared on math and English tests across

New York State, with the most dramatic improvements evident in urban districts such as

Buffalo, leading many to celebrate the progress.

But now, state education officials say the progress may not have been quite what it seemed.

Weaknesses in the state&#8217s testing and scoring systems over the last several years

created what Education Commissioner David M. Steiner equates to systemic &#8220grade

inflation.&#8221

Students who score at the &#8220proficient&#8221 level in middle school math, for instance,

stand only a 1-in-3 chance of doing well enough in high school to succeed in college math, he

said.

&#8220This is about telling the truth about how far we are from where we need to be for

kids to succeed in college,&#8221 said John B. King Jr., senior deputy education commissioner.

Steiner and King are calling for a host of reforms to the state&#8217s testing system, as

well as the eventual adoption of a statewide curriculum.

Some local school administrators said they support the proposed changes, but Buffalo School

Superintendent James A. Williams had no kind words for Steiner and King.

&#8220I think they&#8217re two people who don&#8217t know what they&#8217re doing,&#8221

Williams said. &#8220A more rigorous test is not going to improve student achievement.

It&#8217s not going to improve the graduation rate. I think it&#8217s ridiculous.&#8221

The state Education Department recently asked a group of experts, led by Harvard

University&#8217s Daniel M. Koretz, to determine how closely eighth-grade scores correlate to

high school Regents exam scores &#8212 and how well those Regents exam scores correlate to

success in college.

The study examined data that tracked students through various levels of education. The

state also surveyed colleges and universities to learn how well high school students fare

after they graduate.

The conclusion: Students in New York State are moving through elementary, middle and high

school with test scores they believe to be adequate, but once they get to college, they find

they are not prepared.

A 65 on a Regents exam is enough to earn credit. But college and university officials told

the state that in their experience, students need to score at least an 80 to stand a realistic

chance of earning college credit for a course in that subject area, state education officials

said Tuesday during an interview at The Buffalo News.

Some colleges reported that more than 40 percent of their incoming students need to take

remedial classes in basic subjects before they can move on to credit-bearing classes. And the

more remedial classes that students have to take, the more likely they are to drop out of

college.

&#8220People aim for where the bar is,&#8221 King said. &#8220If you set the bar low,

that&#8217s where people aim. We&#8217ve got to set the bar at a place that is

meaningful.&#8221

Students begin getting &#8220inflated&#8221 test scores before they hit high school, state

officials said. A student who scores a 3 on a state math test &#8212 which is considered

&#8220proficient&#8221 on the scale of 1 to 4 &#8212 stands only a 30 percent chance of

getting an 80 on the high school Regents math exam, they said.

&#8220A 3, it turns out, is not as great as we thought,&#8221 said Robert M. Bennett,

former chancellor of the Board of Regents.

Steiner noted that at the same time New York students have been making significant strides

on the state tests, those students achieved only nominal gains on national math and English

tests.

He cited a number of reasons for the disparity, including problems with the state tests

themselves, which he described as &#8220predictable&#8221 and too narrowly focused.

For example, a student who scored at the proficient level on a state test in 2006 was in

the 45th percentile on the national test, meaning that 55 percent of students in the country

scored better. In 2009, the same score on the state test would land a student in the 20th

percentile on the national test, meaning that 80 percent of students nationwide scored better.

Steiner and King launched a statewide informational campaign Tuesday, beginning in Buffalo,

to discuss the underlying problems they have found in the state&#8217s assessment system and

to introduce reforms.

Already, Steiner said, the state has begun modifying elementary and middle school tests so

they assess broader content and use more of a variety of questions. The tests will gradually

become longer, too.

One of the most jarring changes will become apparent in a few weeks, when the state

releases this year&#8217s math and English scores for grades 3 through 8. Steiner is

recommending that the Board of Regents adopt tougher &#8220cut scores,&#8221 meaning the raw

scores that determine whether a student gets a 1, 2, 3 or 4 on the test. The result is likely

to be a significant drop in the percentage of students considered proficient.

But that&#8217s just the beginning. He is calling a statewide curriculum over the next few

years, a move he said would lead to stronger student performance.

And Bennett called for greater emphasis on the arts, along with an expansion of career

education to prepare students for &#8220relevant&#8221 careers in areas such as health care.

Some local school superintendents embraced the changes in testing and curriculum that state

officials have proposed.

&#8220We knew this was the direction we would be going in,&#8221 said Sharon L. Huff,

superintendent of the Cleveland Hill School District. &#8220Most districts would agree

it&#8217s not just about the test; it&#8217s about providing a strong foundation for our

students.&#8221

Williamsville Superintendent Howard S. Smith said he supports raising the bar but worries

whether the state has enough money to ensure that new tests will be reliable, especially

because teacher evaluations will be based in part on test results.

The harshest criticism came from Buffalo&#8217s superintendent. &#8220There are three

phases to improving education: One, you must have a curriculum. Next, you have the

instruction. Then you do the assessment,&#8221 Williams said. &#8220The State of New York

seems to have it backwards. They&#8217re talking about changing the assessment, but we

don&#8217t have a curriculum.&#8221