So what does it all mean, this winter that feels as if someone forgot to turn the calendar pages after October and November?

Lake Erie remains a balmy 39 degrees. Average daily temperatures in November and December stayed more than 5 degrees above normal. And the 5.2 inches of snow measured at the local National Weather Service office so far this winter lag about 37 inches below average.

Someone apparently forgot to tell winter that it was time to return to Buffalo.

The extremely mild early winter doesn't mean that we're going to escape unscathed -- or that we're going to pay for all this with a rash of heavy lake-effect storms.

And if history is our guide, it doesn't even mean that Lake Erie will remain unfrozen.

The 39-degree Lake Erie temperature on Jan. 8 is tied for second-highest in the 85 years that lake temperature records have been kept.

The warmest was just five years ago, 42 degrees in 2007. And Lake Erie froze Feb. 7 that year, less than a month later.

"The 39 degrees at this point leads us to believe that the lake may not freeze this winter," National Weather Service meteorologist David Thomas said over the weekend. "But we still have a solid chunk of winter to go through. If we have an arctic outbreak of colder air over Lake Erie for several days or a prolonged cold spell, we could have the lake freeze. That's still very possible."

The records show how unlikely it is to go through winter without Lake Erie freezing.

Since 1927, the lake has stayed unfrozen for only four winters, the ones ending in 2002, 1998, 1983 and 1953.

And in the four years that Lake Erie has been at 39 degrees or warmer on Jan. 8 -- 2007, 1983, 1950 and 1932 -- only once did the lake not freeze, in 1983.

The mild early winter hasn't smashed records, but in several categories it has been remarkable for its warmth and dryness.

"We've had a highly unusual start to the winter, with the lack of snowfall and the above-normal warmth," Thomas said.

Some examples:

* At 39 degrees, the lake is 5 degrees above the average temperature for this time of the year.

Since the National Weather Service has kept records, the average date for the lake freezing has been Jan. 21, with the latest date ever being March 7, way back in 1932.

This year, the National Weather Service is aware of only a small amount of ice along the shoreline, at the mouth of Cazenovia Creek.

"Usually, we get some ice forming along the Lake Erie shoreline by the beginning of the New Year," Thomas said.

For those who like to be precise, the lake temperature each day is measured near the Buffalo Water Treatment Plant, about 30 feet deep. When that temperature first reads 32 degrees, the lake is considered frozen.

* The 5.2 inches of snow so far, at the National Weather Service office in Cheektowaga, also is pretty rare.

Through Dec. 31, the Weather Service had recorded 3.8 inches of snow this season. That's tied for the second-lowest ever, back to the 1880s. The lowest total through Dec. 31 was 3.6 inches in 1896, followed by 3.8 inches in 1931.

Not too many people can remember either of those two snowless winters.

* Temperatures so far this winter also have been knocking on the door of the Top 10 lists for balmiest months.

In November, the average temperature (a daily average of the halfway point between the daily high and low) was 46.5 degrees, or 5.8 degrees above normal. That made it the sixth-warmest November since 1871.

And December was the 12th-warmest on record, with an average temperature of 35.5 degrees, or 5.4 degrees warmer than normal.

There's no immediate sign of any drastic cooling off.

It is expected to remain unseasonably warm until a fairly significant storm that's been forecast for the middle of this week.

"And we'll have cold air coming in behind that, for the latter part of the week," Thomas said.

A relatively warm Lake Erie, of course, can serve as the perfect invitation for a huge lake-effect storm, which occurs when cold, dry air passes over a warmer lake, picks up the moisture and later dumps it back on land.

"With the lake remaining open longer, that does allow for the possibility of a major lake-effect snowstorm," Thomas said. "It's hard to say if we're going to pay for it with a large snowstorm or not."

And one nasty, prolonged cold spell can freeze the lake, thus reducing the chance for such storms.

The mild winter certainly doesn't bode well for the vitality of usual cold-weather activities, from skiing to winter carnivals to pond hockey.

In particular, there's mounting concern about the Labatt Blue Pond Hockey Tournament, scheduled for Feb. 10-12 at Buffalo's Erie Basin Marina. Tourney officials have called themselves "optimistically nervous" about the conditions.

Predicting ice depths can be tricky, Thomas noted, because of all the variables: air temperature, amount of sunshine, wave action and wind speed.

"Whether they'll have their 12 inches of ice or not, it's too early to say," he added.

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Charting the waters

Lake Erie temperatures on Jan. 8

Four winters Lake Erie did not freeze: 2002, 1998, 1983, 1953.

Source: National Weather Service

gwarner@buffnews.comnull