Don&#8217t look now Buffalo, but Rochester is gaining on you.

The population of the Buffalo Niagara region has shrunk this past decade to the point that

the Rochester region is nearly as big, according to the latest census estimates released

Tuesday.

The Buffalo Niagara region, comprising Erie and Niagara counties, ranks as the 50th largest

region in the nation.

The Rochester region, which covers five counties, ranks 51st.

&#8220Wow, that really changes my perspective,&#8221 said Kathryn A. Foster, director of

the University at Buffalo Regional Institute. &#8220If you look 50 years ago, it wouldn&#8217t

have been close.&#8221

Buffalo Niagara&#8217s population is estimated at 1.12 million, compared with 1.03 million

for metro Rochester &#8212 a difference of more than 88,000 people.

It&#8217s not that the Rochester region is gaining in population, Foster explained.

It&#8217s just losing people a lot more slowly than the Buffalo region.

Rochester has lost 0.2 percent of its population since 2000, when it ranked as the 49th

largest metro, while the Buffalo region, the 42nd largest metro 10 years ago, lost 4 percent.

&#8220We&#8217re both losing population and losing rank,&#8221 Foster said. &#8220But

Buffalo is losing at a faster pace than Rochester.&#8221

The population estimates shouldn&#8217t be confused with figures from the 2010 census,

which is just under way.

The Census Bureau does an official head count every 10 years. But it annually estimates

state, county and city populations by adjusting the most recent census numbers using birth,

death and migration information, plus data from tax returns.

The latest state and county estimates show that Buffalo Niagara had another difficult

decade:

*The Buffalo region lost more than 46,000 people between 2000 and 2009. Only the metro

areas of Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and hurricane-ravaged New Orleans saw larger declines.

*Ninety percent of the Buffalo region&#8217s population loss came from Erie County. No

other county in the state lost more people.

*Surrounding counties suffered during the decade, too. The population went down 5.1

percent in Cattaraugus County; 4.8 percent in Orleans County; 4.7 percent in Wyoming County;

4.5 percent in Chautauqua County; and 1.5 percent in Allegany County.

Foster cautioned that these figures are just estimates and sees them as an opportunity to

remind people about the importance of filling out the 2010 census form.

Still, there&#8217s no denying the downward trend.

&#8220This was a tough decade,&#8221 Foster said. &#8220It was not as tough as the

70's, but it was a tough decade in the sense we experienced a couple of recessions in the

beginning and the end.&#8221

But there is a hint of hope in the figures.

Estimates show that the population losses the past two years in Buffalo Niagara have slowed

considerably since the middle part of the decade.

The region lost just 250 people between July 1, 2008, and the same date in 2009, according

to estimates.

Much of that had to do with small gains in Niagara County.

Some have speculated that the migration patterns have changed for the better in the state

in the past couple of years, because of the cooling of the job and housing markets across the

rest of the country.

Others, like County Executive Chris Collins, believe that the numbers support their belief

that the worst is over for Buffalo Niagara and that the region&#8217s population has bottomed

out.

&#8220Many parts of our community are experiencing a renaissance of sorts,&#8221 Collins

said. &#8220As a result, we are on our way back to building some of the population losses we

have suffered over the past 25 years.&#8221

It&#8217s hard to tell by the estimates, Foster said.

&#8220I&#8217d hate to make too much of a one-year change,&#8221 she said, &#8220but you

can make the argument that the losses have slowed. There&#8217s less volatility.&#8221

&#8220We may see the decade ahead look different,&#8221 she added. &#8220No one knows what

will happen.&#8221

The U.S. Census Bureau estimated that 19.5 million people lived in New York on July 1,

2009, up more than a half-million since the last official count in 2000.

New York City accounted for most of that growth &#8212 383,195 people &#8212 though Long

Island and suburban Hudson Valley counties also grew in the last decade.

New York City&#8217s growth has been helped by thriving immigrant communities. Some

suburban growth north of New York City has been attributed to jittery city residents moving

after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Fast-growing mid-Hudson Valley areas like Orange County

benefited from house hunters priced out of more expensive areas closer to the city.

The story was different in many upstate areas, which have been losing population for

decades as people, especially young college graduates, leave for the South and West.

The Census Bureau reports that rural counties suffered the greatest population losses.

Topping the list was northern New York&#8217s Hamilton County, which lost 8.4 percent of its

population since 2000; Delaware County, which lost 5.3 percent; and Cattaraugus County, which

lost 5.1 percent.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.