ALBANY — He won't say the words, but Andrew M. Cuomo is running for governor.

Just ask anyone — individuals and special interest groups that have made hefty

contributions, Democratic and Republican lawmakers, close political confidants, potential GOP

foes or advisers to David A. Paterson, the fellow Democrat who now holds the office.

The only person not saying "yes" just yet is Cuomo himself.

The strategy — according to political pundits and an assortment of bloggers and

newspaper accounts — is brilliant because it allows Cuomo, the state attorney general,

to stay above the fray and not have to answer the tough questions on the tough issues

engulfing the Capitol these days.

The cloak in which Cuomo has enveloped himself was apparent last week when The Buffalo News

queried his office about the state budget and was greeted with a deafening silence.

When asked whether he backed Paterson's move to collect taxes on Indian cigarette sales,

the response was that Cuomo, as attorney general, is the state's chief lawyer and that he

could not take positions on those topics because his office has a legal role in the issue.

That was the same response to questions about whether Cuomo supported Paterson's call for a

big increase in the number of charter schools to put the state in a better position to qualify

for as much as $700 million in additional federal funds.

Seven questions about Paterson's proposed budget proposal brought no specific response.

These included whether Cuomo agreed with the governor's plan to cut funding for schools and

health care, or with tax hike proposals or a state spending cap that could provide savings for

property tax relief.

Hailed as "smart strategist'

Because Cuomo is not an announced candidate, many Democrats say, he does not have to stake

out positions on such controversial and divisive topics. He is the attorney general and can

act like that.

"I think certainly Andrew Cuomo is a very smart strategist and he understands the minute you

announce your candidacy that every issue that is the governor's issue is his issue," said

Assemblyman Mark J.F. Schroeder, a Buffalo Democrat who last year publicly said he was backing

a Cuomo candidacy.

Like others, he provided a more generous explanation.

"I really do believe the number one reason Cuomo has not announced is out of respect for

the governor," Schroeder said.

Cuomo, he explained, doesn't want to be seen as interfering at such a crucial time when

Paterson is trying to negotiate a budget resolution. Schroeder, moreover, says he thinks Cuomo

believes Paterson eventually will decide not to seek election, thereby avoiding a bitter

Democratic Party primary.

But Republicans and Paterson allies dismiss such claims. They insist Cuomo has remained

publicly silent about running for governor — while his campaign has stockpiled $16

million — because that allows him to helicopter above the tough fights enveloping the

Capitol.

Critics say that if Cuomo is to be governor, he should be taking a stand now on these

issues. More importantly, they say Cuomo's shadow over the Capitol is doing more than just

affecting political equations.

"Every time Andrew Cuomo or one of his agents undermines David Paterson, it makes it that

much more difficult for the governor to be able to build the kind of consensus needed to solve

some of these problems that are creating a [budget] crisis," said Rick Lazio, who is seeking

the GOP nomination to run for governor.

Many state legislators, Lazio says, already back Cuomo privately and are not necessarily in

the mood to help Paterson look better in the eyes of the public. So Cuomo's waiting game

affects taxpayers, Lazio argues.

"It undermines [Paterson's] ability and influence, and erodes his political capital to get

things done," Lazio said, noting that Paterson is negotiating with lawmakers on how to deal

with a $7.4 billion deficit.

"This is the typical Albany game. You put your own political future ahead of the state,"

Lazio said of Cuomo.

Cuomo's office declined to comment. But Democrats say Lazio, a former congressman from Long

Island who lost the 2000 U.S. Senate race to Hillary Rodham Clinton, would love to see Cuomo

jump in quickly for the ensuing open Democratic firefight.

Impact on policy A political scientist who closely watches

Albany said the political dance could affect what gets done in the Capitol if Cuomo-leaning

legislators — already angry with Paterson because of his attacks on them over the

state's fiscal affairs — decide they have no real reason to work with the governor.

"Legislators look at Paterson and say, "He ain't going to be around any more,' " said

Douglas Muzzio, a professor of public affairs at Baruch College. "The expectation is that at

some point the governor is going to bow out, and that just adds another element to the

Legislature's disregard of the governor.

"The fact that Andrew Cuomo is there has an impact on policy in so far as the Legislature

can safely ignore the governor," he said.

Some Republicans say the lack of cooperation between Democratic lawmakers and Paterson came

to light most recently last week, when legislators cut Paterson out of talks and pushed

through their own weaker version of a government ethics bill. Paterson had proposed closing

far more loopholes and adding more restrictions, but lawmakers, intent on not giving Paterson

any major victories right now, rebuffed it, some Republicans said.

Ratcheting up the rhetoric, the governor last week said that if someone wants his job, they

will have to beat him at the polls. He insisted he is running, whether or not that means a

primary against Cuomo.

Richard Fife, Paterson's campaign manager, added to the rhetoric, saying, "Since it's clear

Mr. Cuomo is running for governor, it's time for him to stop ducking the hard questions of how

he would close a $7.4 billion deficit, balance the budget and pass ethical and fiscal

reforms."

One Democratic Party strategist suggested different ways Cuomo forces might try to get rid

of Paterson. If Paterson doesn't drop out, he said, the party's convention this spring could

deny the governor the 25 percent of delegate support needed for a position on the Democratic

ballot in the fall.

"This can get amazingly ugly," the strategist added.

Special interests' donations

Like many Democratic lawmakers, many of the special interests in the state capital already

are banking on Cuomo being governor next year. Campaign finance filing last week showed that

since July, Cuomo had raised more than $6.7 million — $37,000 a day. Paterson raised

$2.2 million during that period.

Some of Cuomo's big donations came from groups in current battles with Paterson, such as

the state's largest teachers union, which opposes Paterson's school cuts, and liquor stores

trying to halt his plans to permit wine sales in grocery stores.

Lobbyists opened their pockets to Cuomo, such as $50,000 from Wilson, Elser, the

Capitol's biggest lobbying firm; the firm also gave $20,000 to Paterson. Other donations to

Cuomo topping $50,000 included a wholesale drug company in Illinois, a food industry union in

Washington, D.C., Time Warner Cable in North Carolina, a top real estate developer in New York

and a parking lot company in Manhattan.

Some Cuomo allies say they can be as patient as Cuomo in waiting for the right moment to

strike.

"I don't think Andrew Cuomo should announce now," said Assemblyman Sam Hoyt, a Buffalo

Democrat who has been a Cuomo booster for months. "David Paterson should be given more time to

decide if he is the best person at the top of ticket. I believe David Paterson is a good

Democrat and will do what's best for all Democrats."

Hoyt, like many Democrats, looks at Cuomo as invincible.

"I think in the minds of many Democrats, he is unbeatable," Hoyt said.

But while the numbers look dire for Paterson, observers say predictions can be useless in a

business where, just last week in Massachusetts, a Republican politician in the bluest of

states turned polling numbers upside down.

"You can point to case after case where sure winners became losers," said Muzzio, the

Baruch College professor. "So to say Paterson is dead, you can never say that. But he

certainly does look a little bit like a dead man walking."