Yuan’s rise is delicate issue for Obama
President reluctant to upset Beijing
WASHINGTON — In his visit to Beijing this week, President Obama is expected to tread lightly when pressing China to let its currency rise against the dollar.
Doing so would benefit the U. S. economy by making American-made goods cheaper in China, but Obama is reluctant to upset Beijing.
China is the No. 1 lender to the U. S. at a time when the latest annual budget deficit hit a record $1.42 trillion. China has expressed concerns that the falling dollar threatens the value of its existing U. S. holdings.
The United States also needs China’s help in dealing with foreign policy concerns, including North Korea and Iran.
But there’s another reason for a gentler U. S. stance: Analysts believe China already signaled last week that it was preparing to let its currency, the Yuan, rise against the dollar. That shift could eventually aid U. S. manufacturers. It might also feed a U. S. economic rebound.
Sunday, China’s top bank regulator said the weak dollar and low interest rates were distorting global asset prices and posing an “insurmountable risk to the recovery of the world economy,” according to a transcript of a speech he made at a forum in Beijing.
The regulator, Liu Mingkang, said the declining dollar and low interest rates were encouraging a “massive” U. S. dollar carry trade—the practice of borrowing money at low rates in one currency to invest in assets in another currency that offer a higher return.
Analysts say China will likely wait months before tweaking the yuan- dollar exchange rate, which now stands at about 6.8 yuan to the dollar. Beijing doesn’t want to appear to be bowing to U. S. pressure. Even then, it will take time for the U. S. to benefit.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, says he expects the Chinese to begin allowing the yuan to rise against the dollar by next spring, at a rate of about 5 percent a year. At that pace, it would take until around 2015 for the two currencies to be in balance — a process Zandi said could help narrow the U. S. trade gap with China, which last year hit $268 billion.
U. S. manufacturers won’t likely be satisfied. They want the administration to push Beijing to raise the yuan’s value further and faster.. They contend the yuan is undervalued by up to 40 percent.
Normally, a low dollar would make U. S. goods cheaper for hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers. But since the Chinese have kept the yuan tightly linked to the dollar, U. S. exporters haven’t been able to capitalize.
For now, a weak yuan isn’t all bad for the U. S. It’s meant a break for American consumers and retailers that buy goods imported from China.
But many countries have complained about the weaker dollar and China’s close link to it. Some, such as Thailand, South Korea and Russia, have sought to stem the dollar’s rise against their currencies by buying dollars.
And American manufacturing groups blame the low yuan for contributing to the loss of 5.6 million manufacturing jobs in the past decade. During that time, America’s trade gap with China has soared.
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