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Local home sales show mixed results

Sales rise in November, but other indicators fall

News Business Reporter

Published:January 7, 2012, 12:27 AM

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Updated: January 7, 2012, 12:27 AM

Home sales in Buffalo Niagara rose 8 percent in November from a year before, but pending activity, prices and new listings all fell, as the local housing market continued to struggle with a mixed performance.

Closed sales rose to 701 from 647 in November 2010, although that's down 3 percent from 722 in October, according to new figures from the Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors.

However, while the 2011 tally remains below the record levels of 2006 through 2009, it's higher than each of the five previous years.

BNAR reports only sales handled by area Realtors, which include most of the transactions in the eight counties of Western New York, plus some sales from Livingston and Monroe counties.

But pending sales -- in which a contract has been signed but not completed -- fell 6 percent to 517 from 550 a year ago, and were down 16 percent from 618 in October. That's the third-lowest level for the month in at least a decade, and it's an indication that December and January could have slower closing activity as well.

"The economy, the tightened lending, It's just tougher for people to buy a house," said Philip L. Aquila Jr., president of the region's multiple listing service under BNAR. "It's not the rates. It's the economy, it's the lack of jobs, it's the worry about losing a job, and the tightened credit."

Still, BNAR officials tried to stay optimistic in their own assessment, claiming that cumulative sales activity for last year through November is catching up to the levels of previous years. Unlike the "snapshot" of each month, the group adjusts its cumulative tally each month to capture transactions from previous months that were reported by Realtors much later than they occurred.

The group has repeatedly argued that year-to-year comparisons are skewed by the federal homebuyer tax credits of 2009 and 2010, which offered up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 back for "move-up" buyers if they bought a new home by June 2010. That led to artificially heavy sales activity in those years, and particularly "front-loaded" last year's sales into the first half of 2010.

"Looking back over the last 10 years ... there is no indication that our market is in a downturn at this time," the group said.

Even so, for the first 11 months of last year, closed sales were down 7 percent to 7,929 from 8,508, and were still down 14 percent from 9,181 in 2009. And pending sales were down 6 percent and 15 percent, respectively, to 8,355, from 8,919 and 9,791, respectively, in the prior two years.

Prices also fell in November, with both the average and median levels falling 4 percent from a year earlier, to $131,068 and $111,700, respectively. Both are also down from October, by 1 percent and 4 percent, respectively. However, they're still the second- and third-highest for the month, respectively, since at least 1999.

For the year to date, though, the average price was up 1 percent from a year ago and 7 percent from two years ago, to $136,240. The median was down 1 percent from a year ago, to $115,000, but was up 3 percent from $111,830 in the first nine months of 2009.

"We have solid appreciation. That's good news," said Aquila, who is also general manager of MJ Peterson Corp.'s residential brokerage offices. "We've been holding that throughout the recession."

Active listings in the housing inventory remained basically flat in November at 5,145, although it was down 11 percent from October. New listings of 960 dropped 7 percent from a year ago and 18 percent from October.

The National Association of Realtors has projected that a full housing recovery will take at least two more years, but sales should rise 2 percent this year. Aquila said Western New York may even beat that. "We definitely will start inching our way upward back toward the levels of 2008 and 2009, but it may take us a couple of years to do that," he said.

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Comments

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Sorry, I tried to digest this story but it came right back up.

The Green Movement people were just looking for a reason to move back into the cites for transportation reasons and a smaller carbon footprint. The auto industry is responding with electric cars and mopeds. The dynamics of urban migration were already in place when heaven opened up and announced "Say Yes to Education" in Buffalo.

This will be the biggest economic boost to the City of Buffalo since...well...since HSBC decided to leave WNY.

People are going to return to Buffalo in droves. The real estate market is going to experience a flurry of activity. Property values will increase as will property tax rolls. Too bad the current administration is ripping down houses at a record rate. Every one of those houses is permanently removed from the property tax base.

Despite Buffalo's myopic housing practices, this new "Say Yes" program is going to have the unintended effect of growing our city real estate market like no other program in the past.

ROBERT CHAMBERS, BUFFALO, NY on Sat Jan 7, 2012 at 01:34 PM

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