Eight hot spots for '08
How to call the election
The last two elections have reminded Americans that the Electoral College is decisive, compared with the national popular vote. And for the first time since Bill Clinton coasted to an easy reelection in 1996, the Democrats seem to have an edge state-by-state: the fact that Barack Obama is targeting nearly a dozen Republican states from 2004 while John McCain is going after only two Democratic states speaks volumes.
Republicans are left with the hope that a “stealth” movement in the polls will rescue McCain. The last shot Republicans have is winning every large Bush state (Florida and Ohio) along with virtually every small and medium-sized “red” state. The McCain-Palin ticket will need as much luck as in 2000, when George W. Bush lost the national popular vote but squeaked by with a one-state majority in the Electoral College.
One final caveat: We live in volatile times, so a last-minute shift is still possible.
Although nearly a billion dollars has been spent by the two parties on this campaign, it is still coming down to a choice between the experience of McCain versus the message of change from Obama, and the Democratic wave due to Iraq and economic issues. In the latest Gallup Poll, an astonishing 91 percent of voters were dissatisfied with the condition of the country, creating a massive obstacle for all Republicans to overcome.
After being even four years ago, Democrats now hold a double-digit lead in party identification. The Democrats’ 2-to-1 fundraising advantage and superior organization combine with the “wave” to make them favorites. Current trends show the Democrats poised to make major gains in the House and Senate.
The Obama strategy will be to run out the clock with his lead intact.
Right after the conventions, the race was essentially even. But the dramatic housing bust and Wall Street crash — the Dow has lost 40 percent since October 2007 — sharply changed the campaign. In the national popular vote, Obama has had a consistent five-to eight-point lead since the financial markets collapsed into chaos in late September.
McCain campaign manager Rick Davis summed up the situation: “We have an immensely unpopular sitting president,” he said. “If Barack Obama were running to succeed a Democratic president with the numbers we’ve had, we’d see the McCain campaign in places like New York State and California.” The sour mood of the voters has simply hamstrung McCain’s drive.
Unless virtually all of the undecided voters break McCain’s way, Obama remains the slight favorite to carry the popular vote: his lead in the average of the latest polls is 50 percent to 44 percent. (Minor candidates like Ralph Nader or Bob Barr probably won’t be much of a factor this year). But it’s still possible that a big vote in the suburbs and rural areas could save McCain.
In the past, black candidates for governor, U.S. senator and mayor have almost always seen undecided white voters break heavily against them on Election Day. Political scientists have dubbed this “the Bradley Effect,” for Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, who lost what seemed like a safe lead for California governor in his campaign’s closing hours. If that pattern were to recur this year, it would be McCain’s best hope for winning.
But a counter-effect to any residual racial prejudice will be the economic issue and general sour mood of the voters that is helping all Democrats. Obama may also inspire a massive turnout from younger voters who would make the difference.
One faint hope for McCain is that the Investor’s Business Daily and Gallup tracking polls, which were both very accurate in 2004, have the Obama lead under six points.
If they are accurate this time, McCain still has a fighting chance to get the popular vote close and then eke out victories in just enough states to win a majority in the Electoral College. There could even be a hidden women’s surge for Sarah Palin.
Democrats should not get too overconfident: I’ve been in this field for almost 30 years and have seen minority candidates unexpectedly lose at the last minute. When an untested or “historic” nominee is running, we should remember the advice of Yogi Berra: “It ain’t over till it’s over.”
Electoral College
In the end, the national popular vote is only symbolic because states choose the president through the Electoral College. As California Democratic consultant Bill Cavala points out, when the national vote is close, the election will be decided by a “chess game” in the Electoral College. And this year, it looks like eight key states in the South, Midwest and West hold the balance of power in this particular chess game.
We could know who is going to win fairly quickly on Election Night. If Obama wins any Bush states in the Eastern Time Zone, like Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Florida, it will soon be over as the Democratic strength on the West Coast will make eventual victory a certainty.
On the other hand, if McCain can break through in some Northeastern Democratic-leaning states like Pennsylvania or New Hampshire, he could pull off the upset in another long Election Night.
It takes 270 votes to obtain a majority in the Electoral College. John Kerry won 252 in 2004. Of the 20 Kerry “blue” states from 2004, the latest average of surveys show Obama above 50 percent or with double-digit leads in 19 of them.
The one Kerry state that could possibly switch to red would be New Hampshire, where McCain is unbeaten and is within five points in the late surveys.
So if Obama holds every Kerry state, how can he gain the 18 electoral votes he needs to go over the top?
The one Bush 2004 state where Obama has opened up a completely safe lead is Iowa (seven votes), which is next door to his home state and where he built a superb organization that won him the caucuses in January. That raises the Obama base to 259 electoral votes. Both campaigns will be targeting eight Bush states from 2004. McCain can afford to lose two very small Bush states (less than nine electoral votes), but the loss of a medium-sized or large red state would end the Republican hold on the White House.
Four years ago, Kerry could not win without carrying either Ohio or Florida. This year, Obama has expanded the electoral map for Democrats and has many options to get to 270.
So here are the eight states that will decide the election:
Florida -27 votes
Florida was the nation’s ultimate battleground state in 2000. (“Florida, Florida, Florida!” as the late Tim Russert wrote on his clipboard on Nov. 7, 2000.) It has been hard-fought again this year with comedian Sarah Silverman leading the “Great Schlep” of younger Jews to persuade their older relatives to vote for Obama. In the years after the Second World War, the Sunshine State has been key to Republican triumphs: Since 1945, no Republican has won the presidency without Florida. When Democrats win Florida — usually with a Southern or border state nominee — they win nationally.
There is good reason for this, because Florida is now largely populated by suburban retirees from points North. When Republican margins slip among middle-class voters, they are in trouble. This year, Floridians have been hit hard by the housing bust and Wall Street crash, but the elderly may not be quite ready to support a black president (Florida has the oldest resident age average in America). If Obama can’t hold onto the older white voters who went for Hillary Clinton in the primary, McCain will win Florida and still be alive in the Electoral College.
Watch the Democratic margins in South Florida. Losing Florida would be the knockout punch to McCain’s hopes.
Average of latest polls: McCain 46 percent, Obama 48 percent.
Virginia -13 votes
Virginia is an interesting case this year for several reasons: First, the Old Dominion elected the first black governor since the Civil War era and Obama is seeking to duplicate Doug Wilder’s success. Second, popular former Gov. Mark Warner will be elected to the Senate in a landslide and could carry Obama in. Third, turmoil in the District of Columbia has driven some of the black middle class to the Northern Virginia suburbs where they have maintained their Democratic voting habits. The black share of the vote has increased by 3 percentage points and this boost could tip the state to Obama, thus clinching a majority in the Electoral College.
Average of latest polls: McCain 44 percent, Obama 51 percent.
North Carolina -15 votes
North Carolina is another “New South” state that has made substantial racial progress: former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gannt almost defeated conservative icon Jesse Helms in two Senate campaigns during the 1990s. Obama hopes to combine the 25 percent of North Carolina voters who are black with the moderate white voters in Charlotte and the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill “Research Triangle.”
McCain is still slightly ahead here. But since North Carolina is historically close to the South’s regional vote, an Obama win in the Tar Heel State would be the sign of a national Democratic landslide and impending realignment. New South indeed!
Average of latest polls: McCain 47 percent, Obama 49 percent.
Ohio -20 votes
Ohio was the Florida of 2004: the state that decided the election. The Republican ticket won Ohio by two points in 2004. But if Obama wins back the 8 percent to 10 percent of blacks who voted Republican last time and holds onto to every white Kerry voter, he’ll be awfully close to victory in the Buckeye State.
The bad news for Obama is that he lost Ohio badly in the primary to Clinton and the state has never come close to electing a black governor or senator. Ohio is historically the most Republican of the big Frost Belt states and no Republican has ever been elected without it. A loss in Ohio would be fatal to McCain.
Ohio’s share of Catholics, blacks, evangelicals and college graduates is very close to the national averages. In “The Real Majority” by Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg, the typical voter was a 47-year-old machinist from Dayton who has since been replaced by “Joe the Plumber.” Ohio has gone for the Electoral College loser only twice in the last 100 years — in 1944 and 1960 — the second best predictor of national elections after Missouri.
Average of latest polls: McCain 43 percent, Obama 49 percent.
Missouri -11 votes
Missouri indeed has the best track record in predicting national elections over the past century. In the last 25 elections, the Show Me State has gone with the Electoral College winner in every year except 1956 — an accuracy rate of 96 percent!
Missouri is a mixture of Northern and Southern culture with big-city blacks, urban Catholics, rural conservative Democrats and traditionally Republican suburbs. And the Census Bureau marks the center of the population in Missouri. Assuming Obama wins in most blue states plus Iowa, victory in Missouri would mean the Show Me State has chosen another president.
Average of latest polls: McCain 47 percent, Obama 47 percent.
Colorado -9 votes
Colorado, according to Stuart Rothenberg, is the state that will decide this election and he could be right. It is very close to the Mountain Region average in terms of ethnicity, city, suburban and rural voters. Colorado is also in the political center of the Mountain states, often voting close to the regional average.
With the nation almost evenly divided between red and blue areas, any candidate who wins Colorado will have taken a huge step toward a national majority.
Average of latest polls: McCain 45 percent, Obama 51 percent.
New Mexico -5 votes
New Mexico seems another Bush state from 2004 that will likely be switching to the Democrats this year. The most heavily Hispanic state in the nation has a solid Democratic registration advantage of 50 percent to 32 percent.
The middle-class Hispanics who defected to Bush appear to be coming back. The Land of Enchantment’s five votes would put Obama one state away from winning. But McCain is from neighboring Arizona, has supported immigration reform and has done well with Western urban voters. If McCain carries New Mexico, it would be a sign of the biggest upset since Harry Truman in 1948.
Average of latest polls: McCain 43 percent, Obama 53 percent.
Nevada -5 votes
Nevada is another Western state that McCain desperately needs. A Republican loss of both New Mexico and the Silver State’s five votes would give Obama exactly 269 votes and that means that Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s Democratic-majority House of Representatives would select him as president.
Nevada has been the nation’s fastest growing state for the last 30 years, meaning that the state’s politics can greatly change every decade. The original migrants to Nevada were white middle-class voters seeking riches in the gambling-tourism business. But the second wave has been non-white workers in the service industries. Without Nevada, it’s hard to see how McCain pieces together 270 electoral votes.
Average of latest polls: McCain 43 percent, Obama 50 percent.
Punishing the GOP
As noted above, Ohio and Florida have been essential to Republican nominees. The loss of either would cost McCain dearly. To get to 270 electoral votes, McCain would have to win every one of our “hot spots” except either Nevada or New Mexico. This appears very difficult at this writing, because Obama is more than 50 percent in half of them.
New Mexico looks safely Democratic, meaning that Obama needs just one more swing state to win. At the other end of McCain possibilities, late polls show Obama within striking distance in Republican strongholds such as Indiana, Georgia, North Dakota and Montana. Obama pickups there and in our eight “hot spots” would signal 2008 as the reverse of the 1980 GOP landslide.
The problem for Republicans is that Bush’s one-state margins in 2000 (Florida) and 2004 (Ohio) left them no margin for error — and there have been plenty of errors in the last four years. After the stock market crash of 2008 wiped out more than $2 trillion in middle-class wealth, this election hasn’t really been about McCain versus Obama. It has been about punishing the Republicans.
McCain seems like a victim of circumstances, unable to get his message heard. He can still win, but it will be a tall — no, gigantic — order. McCain will have to win nearly every one of our swing states. As anyone who ever visited a casino knows, winning seven of eight poker or blackjack hands is very rare.
The odds are against McCain, but long-shot bets do sometimes pay off. On Tuesday, watch Missouri, Virginia and Colorado.
Patrick Reddy is a Democratic political consultant from California.
