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Sunday, November 22, 2009

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Inside the NFL

Sorry Seven didn't get parity invitations

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The bottom is falling out of the NFL this season.

Every year there is a handful of really bad teams at the bottom.

This year, however, there aren't just two, three or four dregs in the NFL. There are seven.

For the first time since 1970, there are two 0-7 teams and one 0-6 team. Only once in the last 40 years — in 1985 — had there been three 0-6 teams.

The Sorry Seven right now comprises: St. Louis (0-7), Tampa Bay (0-7), Tennessee (0-6), Cleveland (1-6), Kansas City (1-6), Detroit (1-5) and Oakland (2-5).

We'll have to see if any other teams spiral downward and join this group.

The increasing number of blowouts is another sign of the bad getting worse. Last week six of 13 games were decided by 28 or more points. The average margin of victory (20.3) was the largest in the NFL since the last week of the 1970 season, according to the Web site Cold, Hard Football Facts.

History says it's hard for teams to cover a spread of 10 or more points. In the first nine years of this decade, double-digit favorites were only 81-141, a coverage rate of 37 percent.

Double-digit favorites are 9-4 this season (69 percent).

Why is the bottom so low? Six of the Sorry Seven are in all-out rebuilding mode. (That's not counting Tennessee.) That's nothing new. There often are that many start-over teams, and there often are three teams that go 3-13 or worse.

Bad quarterbacking is an obvious factor. There always has been bad quarterbacking at the bottom of the league, but the depth at the position might be just a bit worse than normal. More teams are inclined to go young at the position than in the past.

The bigger factor is bad front office management. There seems to be a couple more franchises than normal hindered by dysfunctional front offices. And strong management has become even more important than before the free agency era, when rosters were more stable. Four of the Sorry Seven — St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit and Oakland — are mired in a long history of bad decision-making in the football department.

St. Louis has lost 17 straight and 34 of its last 39. The Rams are on their way to a sixth straight non-winning year.

Cleveland has lost 12 of 13 and 18 of 23 and is working on its ninth losing season in 11 years.

Detroit has lost 20 of 21 and 43 of 52 and is en route to a ninth straight losing season.

Oakland is 26-77 the last seven years.

Kansas City has lost 28 of its last 31.

Buffalo isn't too far behind on the bad-management list. The Bills are on their way to a 10th straight nonplayoff season.

The NFL still will be able to trumpet a record of parity after this season. There could be new winners in four of eight divisions, if not more, with New Orleans, Indianapolis, Denver and New England already in strong positions.

But that parity in the top three-quarters of the league is little consolation this year to those in the bottom.

Indy's streak

The Colts shoot for a 16th straight regular-season win today at home against San Francisco. If they get it they will tie for the fourth longest win streak in league history. New England holds the record of 21 straight, set from 2006 to '08. The Pats are No. 2 on the list at 18, set from 2003 to '04. Chicago won 17 straight from 1933 to '34.

The other teams with 16 straight wins: Miami ('71-73 and '83-84), Pittsburgh ('04-05) and Chicago ('41-42).

It's going to be tough for the Colts to reach the league record. Their next six games after this week: home against Houston and New England, on the road at Baltimore and at Houston, then home against Tennessee and Denver.

Hester versus Cribbs

Special teams will be in the spotlight when Cleveland meets Chicago today. Chicago's Devin Hester and Cleveland's Josh Cribbs rank first and second in the NFL since 2005 in return touchdowns. Hester has 11 and Cribbs eight.

Because of his full-time duty as a receiver, Hester only returns punts this year, not kickoffs. Hester has a strong, 12.9-yard average on punts this season. Cribbs already has both a punt return and a kickoff return for a TD this season. He leads the NFL with a 16.4 average on punts. He's fourth on kickoffs at 28.9 yards.

Cribbs told Cleveland reporters last week he's inspired by Hester.

"Everything about his play is inspirational to me," Cribbs said. "He's knocked down a lot of doors for the return game and special team players and is now becoming an outstanding offensive player. He's ... letting coaches know that special teams players can be core players."

The Bears are 9-2 when Hester scores on a return. The Browns, held back by a miserable offense, are 1-7 when Cribbs scores. Both men are chasing Brian Mitchell, who holds the all-time return TD record with 13.

Bud rules

At 0-6, the Titans' players did not appear to begrudge team owner Bud Adams for demanding a change at quarterback. It's no secret Adams demanded that the Titans draft Houston native Vince Young in the first place in 2006. Adams as much as acknowledged he ordered V.Y. to bump Kerry Collins from the lineup this week. So coach Jeff Fisher complied.

"How can I undermine a coach and be the owner of the team?" asked veteran linebacker Keith Bulluck. "You work for me at the end of the day. Jeff is a great coach and does a lot of great things. But to me, the outside looking in, it looks like Jeff's hands were tied in this. But we're a team and we are backing whoever goes out there and getting ready for Jacksonville."

Collins signed a two-year deal in February worth $14 million and earned $8.5 million in salary and bonuses this year. The odds are he's still going to be on the roster next season, unless Young does a complete turnaround and excels the second half of the season. You've got to think Fisher isn't banking on that, or he would have inserted Young into the lineup sooner.

Onside kicks

• The three undefeated teams — New Orleans, Indianapolis and Denver — are the most in the league at this point in the season since the merger. Actually four teams started 6-0 (counting Minnesota), the most ever.

• With five completions today, the Colts' Peyton Manning hits 4,000 for his career. The top three on the all-time list: Brett Favre (5,878), Dan Marino (4,967), John Elway (4,123).

• Cowboys linebacker DeMarcus Ware raised the pay bar for elite pass rushers last week. He got a contract extension of six years and $78 million. It included a $20 million bonus and $40 million in guarantees.

mgaughan@buffnews.com


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