Douglas Turner: Obama’s popularity appears to be waning
WASHINGTON — Less than a month after telling Gov. David A. Paterson that he will hurt the state’s 2010 Democratic ticket, President Obama got some embarrassing news about his own political appeal in Virginia.
A Rasmussen Survey asked Virginia voters whether they would be more likely or less likely to vote for the Democratic candidate for governor, State Sen. Creigh Deeds, if Obama campaigned for him.
Obama won Virginia’s electoral votes by more than 6 percent last November, but 43 percent of the respondents said last week they would be less likely to support Deeds if Obama barnstormed for him and only 23 percent said they would be more inclined to back Deeds. The rest didn’t know. The White House political operation, which had been mulling an Obama plunge across the Potomac to rescue the struggling Deeds, told the Washington Post on Thursday Obama wouldn’t be coming. Of course he could change his mind.
Virginia is one of three big contests on Nov. 3 where Obama’s aura is invested. The other two are the race for mayor of New York City and governor of New Jersey.
Republicans will cull the outcomes and the potential effect Obama has on these elections for signs of whether they will make the massive gains they need next year to take back control of the House and Senate from the Democrats. However, edgy Democratic members of Congress will weigh whether their roll-call votes on Obama’s controversial health insurance revision bill, and his unpopular cap-and-trade energy bill, will endanger their own chances for re-election.
Obama has tepidly endorsed New York City’s Democratic Comptroller Bill Thompson to defeat incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg, an independent, and is strongly backing incumbent New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, Democrat, against former U. S. Attorney Chris Christie, Republican.
Bloomberg is favored, as is the GOP candidate for governor of Virginia, Attorney General Bob McDonnell. Corzine-Christie is a see-saw battle. Obama, former President Bill Clinton and Vice President Biden are scheduled to try to bail out the ethically challenged Corzine in New Jersey in the coming days.
Democratic defeats in all three races, especially by Corzine, will make it doubly difficult for the president to persuade those Democrats who rake in fat donations from the insurance and hospital industries — called “moderates” by our press corps — to vote for meaningful health insurance reform before the end of the year.
The reason is Obama’s sinking numbers, particularly with independent voters. With all voters, Obama’s favorable ratings have slid 22 points since he was inaugurated in January. He still has a firm majority. However, a new Marist poll shows he has a small net negative with independent voters. Among independents, 45 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove. His disapproval rating is up 10 percentage points since August among independents.
Independent voters don’t matter much in New York, but they do in swing states that Obama won like Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio. And their congressional Democrats are watching.
Driving these bad numbers with independents are the jobless recovery, confusion over the president’s goals on health insurance and, most of all, his war in Afghanistan. Of these three problems, the president has the most control over health care, although he has squandered most of his influence by his backing-and-filling on the public option. So his popularity could slide in the next 12 months, putting him in a position not unlike the one endured by Paterson.
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Post-racial? Not enough to let Rush Limbaugh buy a piece of the St. Louis Rams of the NFL. Limbaugh disqualified himself from owning any team where the majority of players are blacks because of his repeated comments belittling blacks. He called Obama “the magic Negro” last year.
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