Stanley Cup playoff preview: Defending champion Red Wings have the edge in experience
Detroit, Carolina picked for finals
Published: April 15, 2009, 12:30 am
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The Buffalo Sabres finished one win from making the playoffs, so naturally people couldn’t help but wonder how far they could have gone with a little momentum and a ton of goaltending. Could they have beaten the Bruins, something they did four times during the regular season?
The Sabres can talk about how close they were to reaching the postseason and bemoan their lost opportunities if it makes them feel better. The reality is they weren’t a playoff team. It took a near implosion from Montreal after the All-Star break and a major late-season turnaround from Buffalo just to make it interesting.
But that’s the thing about playoff hockey. You never really know what’s going to happen. The best teams are prone to upsets in hockey more than any other major team sport. Good teams get knocked out in the first round every year. One team will go further than anybody expected.
The Bruins finished first in the Eastern Conference, but it’s a crapshoot this season. I’m going with my sleeper team, the Carolina Hurricanes, to reach the Stanley Cup finals for the second time in four years. The pick is mostly being made on a gut feeling, hardly enough for anybody to bet their life savings in Las Vegas.
In fact, it could blow up in the first round against New Jersey.
Defending champion Detroit is my pick in the Western Conference and my pick to win the Cup for the second straight season. The Red Wings’ biggest obstacle is their own goaltending, which has been suspect all season. Chris Osgood will start, but he hasn’t even been the best goalie on his own team.
Ty Conklin has been better. Wings coach Mike Babcock is going with experience. Osgood has won three Stanley Cups with Detroit, including two in which he was the No. 1 goaltender. Conklin has been a career backup and has played a grand total of six minutes in the postseason. That could change this year.
The first round does offer some interesting matchups.
Columbus, for example, reached the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Its reward is playing Detroit, which has reached the playoffs 17 straight seasons and won the Cup four times since 1996-97.
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh will extend their in-state rivalry after meeting last season in the conference finals with the Penguins breezing in six games. San Jose and Anaheim, which for years have been superpowers in the West, will meet in the first round in another in-state matchup.
The Bruins and Canadiens, two Original Six teams, are ready for another installment of their heated rivalry. Last year, the Habs were the top seed while the Bruins were making their first postseason appearance after two difficult years following the lockout. Boston lost in seven games. This season, their seeds are reversed.
Here’s a closer look at each series:
Eastern Conference
Boston (1) versus Montreal (8)
Bruins update: The Bruins jumped into the Eastern Conference lead early in the season and remained there for the rest of the year. They allowed a league-low 196 goals and had the best goal differential (plus-78) in the league. Tim Thomas gets much of the credit, but he has plenty of help. The Bruins have a great mix of skill and toughness. If young players Blake Wheeler and Milan Lucic play well, they will be tough to beat.
Canadiens update: The Habs were among the preseason favorites but nearly imploded after the All-Star break. Their problem coincided with Robert Lang’s injury, but that’s a weak excuse. Alex Kovalev disappeared for long stretches but had nine goals and 17 points over the final 10 games. Goalie Carey Price, who battled confidence problems, allowed three or more goals nine times over his final 11 games.
Outlook: Boston nearly knocked out Montreal in the first round last season before losing, 5-0, in Game Seven. It shouldn’t take the Bruins nearly that long to return the favor. Boston in five games.
Washington (2) versus N. Y. Rangers (7)
Capitals update: MVP candidate Alex Ovechkin scored a league-leading 56 goals, the third time he had 50 or more in four NHL seasons. He has help. Forwards Nicklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin and defenseman Mike Green each averaged more than a point per game. The big question remains in goal. Jose Theodore (2.87 goals-against average, .900 save percentage) has been spotty all year.
Rangers update: Henrik Lundqvist is the wild card in this series, and he was in playoff mode down the stretch. He had a 12-5 record and allowed two or fewer goals nine times over that period. The Rangers scored the fewest goals (210), 16 fewer than Columbus among the lowest-scoring playoff teams. Chris Drury was mediocre, but he had two goals and two assists in two victories that secured their playoff berth.
Outlook: New York can’t win unless Lundqvist steals the series, and that’s a tall order given the talent on the other side. Capitals in six. New Jersey (3) versus Carolina (6)
Devils update: Martin Brodeur has the most experience among playoff goalies, and it will be needed this season. He has been streaky since coming back from the arm injury, winning five straight, losing six straight and winning four of five. Zach Parise is one of the better young players in the league. Patrik Elias and Brendan Shanahan are among several players who know what it takes to win it all.
Hurricanes update: Carolina had a 33-19-5 record under Paul Maurice after a 12-11-2 start. They earned 28 of 36 possible points over the final 18 games. Eric Staal is coming off his second 40-goal season. Erik Cole had 15 points in 17 games after returning from Edmonton. Rod Brind’Amour, parked near the bottom of the NHL’s plus-minus rating for most of the season, was plus-7 after March 1.
Outlook: The Devils have experience over most teams, but not the Hurricanes. Expect a very tight series littered with one-goal games and overtime before Carolina prevails in six.
Pittsburgh (4) versus Philadelphia (5)
Penguins update: Sid and the Kids were in trouble before a coaching change cured the dreaded Stanley Cup hangover. Pittsburgh was in 10th place under coach Michel Therrien but went 18-3-4 and climbed six spots under Dan Bylsma. This team remains dangerous and is capable of returning to Cup form. The Pens were the only team with two players, Evgeni Malkin (110) and Sidney Crosby (103), to post 100-point seasons.
Flyers update: Goaltending remains a primary concern. If former Sabres goalie Martin Biron can rediscover his game, they are capable of going deep into the postseason. If not, they could be gone after the first round. Ex-Sabres center Daniel Briere leads the NHL with 50 playoff points in the last three years. Jeff Carter had a career-high 46 goals. Mike Richards is one of the NHL’s most complete players.
Outlook: Biron and backup Antero Niittymaki have almost identical stats. Marc-Andre Fleury (14-6, 1.97, .933) was brilliant in the postseason last year. Take the Penguins in five games again.
Western Conference
San Jose (1) versus Anaheim (8)
Sharks update: San Jose won the Presidents’ Trophy for the first time in its 18-year history. The Sharks lost in the second round in each of the last three years after reaching the conference finals in 2003-04. They had a league-high 32 wins and a league-best five losses in regulation at the Shark Tank. Is this the year veteran center Joe Thornton finally wins the Cup?
Ducks update: Anaheim found a way to reshape the roster on the fly and still make the playoffs. The names have changed with newcomers Ryan Whitney and James Wisniewski coming over, but they still have the best defense corps with Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger. They enter the postseason with momentum, going 10-2-1 down the stretch to grab the final spot.
Outlook: The Ducks delivered a 5-2 victory in San Jose on April 4, and the two teams split the season series. Anaheim is capable, but San Jose is too deep. Sharks in six. Detroit (2) versus Columbus (7)
Red Wings update: Detroit is the class of the league until proven otherwise. The Wings had the talent and depth to finish first in the league but not the goaltending. Osgood had a miserable season and still had a 16-9-8 record while playing behind the likes of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom and all the Cup winners. Osgood’s 3.09 GAA was ranked 41st, his .887 SP was 45th. Conklin, get ready.
Blue Jackets update: They were euphoric after making the playoffs for the first time in history, but that could fade once the series begins. Columbus has a true stopper in rookie goalie Chris Mason and a true scorer in Rick Nash. Their biggest problem, especially against a team like Detroit, is a lack of postseason experience. Plus, the Red Wings had the NHL’s best power play while the Jackets had the worst.
Outlook: The Red Wings have nine straight 100-point seasons but have suffered three first-round knockouts over that span. It’s not going to happen this year. Detroit should sweep Columbus and coast into the second round.
Vancouver (3) versus St. Louis (6) Canucks update: Vancouver overcame a sloppy start with a 23-7-2 record since Feb. 1, mainly because they have a great goalie in Roberto Luongo. He allowed two or fewer goals 19 times out of his final 25 games and finished with consecutive shutouts. The Sedin twins have never played past the second round. The Canucks are putting back the pieces after Taylor Pyatt’s fiancee died in a car accident.
Blues update: They were stumbling around with a 17-23-4 record before a comeback win over Boston on Jan. 19. Their record after that game was 28-8-6, and they slipped into the sixth spot with nine wins in their final 11 games. All that without Paul Kariya, who missed 71 games with a hip injury. Brad Boyes had a team-best 72 points, a team-worst minus-20 rating.
Outlook: The Canucks are the better team top to bottom, but the Blues’ chemistry looks just right at the best time of year. St. Louis upsets Vancouver in seven games.
Chicago (4) versus Calgary (5)
Blackhawks update: South Buffalo native Patrick Kane makes his first postseason appearance for a Chicago team that missed the playoffs nine times in 10 years. The Blackhawks have been erratic, although they did finish with six wins in seven games and back-to-back victories over Detroit. The Blackhawks have a good mix of youth and experience but very little playoff experience.
Flames update: Injuries have ravaged their blue line, which is a serious problem for a team that likes to punish forwards. It could open up room for Kane&Co. Olli Jokinen, who had eight goals and 15 points but was minus-7 in 19 games for Calgary, will make his playoff debut after 11 NHL seasons. Goalie Miikka Kiprusoff was lit up last spring and hasn’t won a playoff round since the 2003-04 team that lost in the finals.
Outlook: Calgary is a tough matchup for Chicago because it plays a physical style, but the Flames lose an edge with so many players getting banged up. Take the Blackhawks in six.
bgleason@buffnews.com
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