Iraq quivers amid U. S. pullout in urban areas
Countdown to Tuesday is rife with uncertainty
BAGHDAD — By Tuesday, all but a small number of American soldiers will have left Baghdad and other urban areas, handing over security to Iraqi soldiers and police still largely untested as an independent fighting force.
State television has been showing a countdown clock with a fluttering Iraqi flag and the words “June 30: National Sovereignty Day.”
If the Iraqis can hold down violence, it will show that the country is finally on the road to stability. If they fail, Iraq faces new bloodshed, straining a nation still divided along sectarian and ethnic lines.
The top U. S. commander in Iraq, Army Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, said Sunday he was confident that this is the right time for the move.
“I do believe they’re ready,” he told CNN in an interview. “We’ve seen constant improvement in the security force. We’ve seen constant improvement in governance.”
Privately, many U. S. officers worry that the Iraqis will be overwhelmed if violence surges, having relied for years on the United States for everything from firepower to bottled water.
Many Iraqis also fear more violence after a spike in bombings and shootings last week that killed more than 250 people. U. S. and Iraqi officials have warned that they expect more violence as insurgents try to stage a show of force in the days surrounding the withdrawal.
“The Americans are pulling out, but they haven’t accomplished the task that they came for, which is defeating terrorism,” said Miriwan Kerim, 32, a watch peddler in Kirkuk. “The security situation is still fragile, so the withdrawal will not restore us to square one but to square zero.”
President Obama insists there’s no turning back. Handing over control of the cities brings him one step closer to fulfilling his campaign pledge to end an unpopular war that has claimed the lives of more than 4,300 U. S. troops and tens of thousands of Iraqis since it began in March 2003.
Despite public unease, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki appears eager to see the Americans leave and has urged Iraqis to hold steady against continued violence. Ahead of national elections next year, al-Maliki is portraying himself as the leader who defeated terrorism and ended the U. S. occupation.
He has declared this Tuesday a national holiday, telling a national television audience Saturday that the U. S. departure will “bolster Iraq’s security” and show the world that Iraqis can manage their own affairs.
Many Iraqis are also eager for the U. S. occupation to end, although more than 130,000 American troops remain in the country.
“It is good to see the departure of American troops as the first phase of ending the foreign occupation of our country,” said Ibrahim Ali, 26, a teacher from Kut. “Our troops are able to protect Iraqi cities, but they need more training and naval and air support.”
Others fear that the security forces, especially the police, are still under the influence of Shiite militants and will not enforce the law evenhandedly.
The urban withdrawal, required under the U. S.-Iraqi security pact that took effect this year, marks the first major step toward withdrawing all American forces from the country by Dec. 31, 2011.
American soldiers will remain in the cities to train and advise Iraqi forces, as well as protect U. S. diplomatic missions and provincial reconstruction teams. With only hours to go, U. S. and Iraqi officials were still haggling over numbers and locations.
Combat operations will continue in rural areas, but only with permission of the Iraqi government. U. S. troops will return to the cities only if asked.
The absence of tens of thousands of American troops who once lived, fought and patrolled the streets of Baghdad and other cities will be a major challenge for Iraqi forces.
With the deadline approaching, U. S. troops have been packing up their gear and moving to bases outside the cities, such as the giant Camp Victory complex on the western edge of Baghdad or Forward Operating Base Marez on the outskirts of the northern city of Mosul.
The withdrawal from the cities marks an end to the U. S. troop surge strategy of 2007, when the U. S. rushed thousands of reinforcements to Iraq to stem fighting between Sunnis and Shiites.
Before the surge, the U. S. tried moving troops out of the cities, handing over security to the Iraqis. American units would patrol Baghdad by day and return to bases outside the city at night, leaving control of the streets to death squads and militias.
The surge changed all that. U. S. soldiers moved out of giant bases and into former schools, clinics and police stations where they lived and worked round-the-clock with their Iraqi partners. Now the focus of the U. S. effort will be training and mentoring.
Sunni lawmaker Mustafa al- Hiti said the drawdown is coming too soon, “but the government has made its decision and will shoulder the responsibility of any failure if the security situation unravels.”
The Americans will also become more dependent on the Iraqis for tracking insurgents since U. S. troops will not be in key urban areas, raising concerns about increased vulnerability of the Americans.
“We’ll be relying a lot on the Iraqis for that situational awareness,” said a military spokesman, Army Brig. Gen. Stephen Lanza.
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