The Buffalo News : Opinion

Saturday, November 21, 2009

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Housing offers a silver lining

Values rise slightly here, activity declines slightly

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One benefit of living in the Buffalo area during harsh economic times was reflected in the latest national study of home price sales, which indicate local single-family houses here are commanding more money. It’s a dollop of good news for an area that needs such encouragement.

The National Association of Realtors survey showed the Buffalo-Niagara Falls metropolitan area as one of 28 regions in the United States to show a rise in home prices during the July-through-September period.

The Buffalo market has experienced some “drift,” according to the president of the Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors, down about 6 percent to 7 percent in market activity. But there has been roughly 3 percent appreciation in real estate values. Market drift in the single digits is still pretty good — consider the 20 percent to 25 percent drop in value in Florida, where there also was a drop in market activity.

The Buffalo area does not have the same problems as Florida, California and Las Vegas in the precipitous loss of housing value. Who knows what the future will bring, but unless there’s another shoe about to drop, so far it’s OK to brag about Western New York.

This area has affordable housing, in general. A Cape Codstyle home that cost $70,000 to $80,000 in Depew will translate to about $150,000 to $180,000 in other parts of the country. The mean average of $130,000 to $140,000 of residential real estate value in Buffalo translates, on average, to easily in excess of $260,000 to $270,000 in other parts of the country.

There’s reason to be grateful for the upside. Nationally, of course, there will be an equilibrium, or “settling out,” effect. National real estate values have fallen back to 1998 levels, according to local realtors association president Jim Knight. There’s definitely been a large regression, but levels now may be returning to normal. The growth nationally has been exponential over the past seven to eight years, and now first-time homeowners are having difficulty getting mortgages — and homeowners are having a difficult time getting their homes appraised at the values that would allow them to get out from under heavy debt.

In Buffalo, there have been bumps in that road as well, but they haven’t been as severe. And there is that roughly 3 percent a year appreciation in value.

Attribute the good news to the current lower and affordable price of housing stock here, although continuing job losses and a rise in property taxes could have future impacts. While properties can be had around here at reasonable prices, New York State taxes are high and are not going to get much better with the state facing both current and out-year fiscal deficits.

Still, Buffalo area housing stock is probably a bit more right-sized than other hot spots around the country, and that’s something to keep in mind when absorbing national housing price news. It’s just one of the benefits of a livable Western New York.


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