Buffalo ranks No. 4 among strongest housing markets
McAllen, Texas, sits at the top of the list
Aesop’s adage “slow and steady wins the race” turns out to be true when it comes to the Buffalo housing market.
Forbes magazine has ranked Buffalo No. 4 on its list of “America’s 25 Strongest Housing Markets.” And ironically, the region’s current strength is a result of it missing out on the real estate “boom” that swept many other parts of the country ahead of the past year’s “bust.”
It’s the same story with the other urban areas at the top of the list, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com, which conducted the research for Forbes.
“None participated in the housing boom,” Zandi said, referring to his rankings that put McAllen, Texas; Syracuse; Pittsburgh; Buffalo; and El Paso, Texas, as the top five markets on the list.
The Forbes piece explains housing markets in Upstate New York never had the ups and downs experienced by markets in the rest of the country. Realty USA President Merle Whitehead said the magazine’s analysis fits his assertion that the Buffalo market is a “rock star” when it comes to weathering the national recession.
“Our biggest problem is consumer confidence. In reality, this is a well-balanced market with a great selection of inventory and great interest rates and we’ll see that in the numbers over the next few months,” Whitehead said.
Zandi predicts home prices in Buffalo, Syracuse and Albany should remain steady in the coming year. For Buffalo, he forecasts no more than a 1 percent decline in values.
Moody’s is predicting an average 15 percent decline across the U. S. housing market as a whole.
Local residential sales data collected by the Buffalo Niagara Association of Realtors bear out the Forbes/Moody’s research. In November, the most recent month for which BNAR data is available, the number of residential sales in Erie and Niagara Counties dropped a whopping 21 percent, but among the 714 units that sold, the average sale price climbed 23 percent from the prior year.
An mid-2008 survey by the National Association of Realtors also found the Buffalo-Niagara region to be a home value bright spot. For the July-through- September period, the metropolitan area was one of just 28 regions in the United States to chart a rise in home prices.
The Forbes/Moody’s report focused on areas with populations over 500,000, and prepared forecasts through 2011. Prices from the second quarter of 2008 were used to forecast how far prices will likely fall before reaching bottom. Rochester and Albany also made the magazine’s Top 25 housing market list, coming in at No. 15 and No. 21, respectively.
This marks the second time in the past year Buffalo has been singled out in a Forbes economic ranking. Back in August, the city earned the less-than- flattering distinction of making Forbes list of the 10 “Fastest Dying Cities,” a ranking tied to population loss statistics.
